Monsoon rumbles back: Arizona prepares for severe thunderstorms this Saturday

According to the Arizona Weatherman, monsoon thunderstorm activity will increase in Arizona starting on Friday and then even more on Saturday. On Friday, 16 Aug 2024, convective activity will be over southern Arizona; on Saturday, it will expand to northern and southern Arizona.

Thunderstorm model data for Saturday afternoon 17 Aug 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

The upper-level high will traverse east of Arizona into New Mexico in the next two days and provide a more favorable flow. This, combined with an influx of tropical moisture, will bring back the convective activity. Friday will have less coverage than Saturday, but it will start the process. On Friday, expect thunderstorms to impact southern Arizona for Santa Cruz, Central to Eastern Pima, and Southern Cochise, Greenlee, Navajo, and Southern Apache Counties. This looks more like an impact for Nogales and Sierra Vista on Friday. An isolated chance for severe weather is possible for some of these storms.

On Saturday, Aug 17, 2024, the thunderstorm area coverage expands significantly throughout the day for southern, eastern, and northern Arizona. The north section of the state in Coconino and Northern Mohave will have scattered thunderstorm coverage. Gila, Navajo, Apache, and Greenlee will have more isolated coverage. Additionally, to the south, Santa Cruz, Pima, Cochise, Graham, and Pinal counties will also develop thunderstorms. The severe weather potential will increase as the instability will be higher, and the likelihood of strong gusty winds >60 mph, up to one inch of hail, and localized flooding is possible through the afternoon into the early evening hours. This convective activity will have a longer impact than on Friday. The main locations to have vicinity or overhead thunderstorms will be the Grand Canyon, Flagstaff, Tucson, and Sierra Vista for the day. There is a possibility of movement into Maricopa County and the vicinity of Phoenix during the evening hours.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

Stay informed and connected with the latest, accurate, and exciting contributor news articles by downloading the Newsbreak App:

https://newsbreakapp.onelink.me/2115408369?pid=mp_1653400&msource=mp_1653400