Severe monsoon thunderstorms possible for Arizona this holiday weekend

According to the Arizona Weatherman, on Saturday, August 31, 2024, the Mogollon Rim is the most likely location in Arizona to have isolated severe thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon into the early evening hours. Isolated thunderstorms will also kick off over southern Arizona today, with a lesser chance of severe weather.

Model data for potential thunderstorms on Saturday, 31 Aug 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

The upper-level pattern over the Mogollon Rim indicates weak speed divergence, some 500mn vorticity signals, moderate to higher instability on the skew-T, and positive hail indicators. The steering flow is a west-northwest flow through the afternoon. Expect isolated severe thunderstorms with the potential for winds >60 mph, hail up to an inch, and localized flooding. The model data show this possibility for Southern Navajo, Gila, Southern Coconino, Yavapai Counties, and Central Mohave. To the north locations to get thunderstorms in the vicinity or overhead are Flagstaff, Payson, Prescott, and even to Kingman today.

Southern Arizona will also have isolated thunderstorms with a less likely chance of severe weather, but a wind gust >50 mph is possible. The models indicate that Santa Cruz County will get the best chances, and Pima County, Cochise, Graham, and Pinal will also have thunderstorms today. Tucson may have some vicinity over the Catalina Mountains today, and the rest of southern Arizona will have pop-up single cells that are not very well organized.

Model data for potential thunderstorms for Sunday, 1 Sep 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

For Sunday, 1 September 2024, thunderstorms are expected to concentrate over Cochise, Pima, Graham, Greenlee, Pinal, and Gila Counties. This activity is possible to be severe, mainly for Cochise County, with the thunderstorms passing through the County. The best chance will be for winds >60 mph, small hail, and localized flooding. This will be my last update through Monday, 2 September, 2024 I will be offline. Have a great and safe Labor Day weekend!

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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