Thunderstorms to hit Northern Arizona today with risk of severe winds and hail

According to the Arizona Weatherman, for Sunday, 8 Sep 2024, expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms again on the Mogollon Rim with a chance of isolated severe potential for strong convective winds, hail, and localized flooding.

Model potential thunderstorms on Sunday, 8 Sep 2024.Photo byPivotal Weather

The upper-level high has shifted to the northeast, with weak upper-level speed divergence over the state's northern section. A weak PVA vort maxima is moving over southern Coconino County this afternoon into the evening. The steering flow is generally toward the west-southwest. The skew-t indices are moderate today, with CAPEs around 1,100, LIs -5, DCAPEs around 1,300, and one positive hail indicator. It looks like there is a slight chance of severe conditions. The most probable chances are for strong winds, small hail, and even localized flooding.

The main push for severe isolated thunderstorms for winds greater than 60 mph, up to one-inch hail, and localized flooding will be for Western Gila, Coconino, Yavapai, and Mohave Counties today. There is also a likelihood of isolated thunderstorms over Navajo and Apache Counties. The locations that will potentially have thunderstorms in the vicinity or overhead will be Flagstaff, Prescott, and the Grand Canyon this afternoon. The Southern Arizona area is looking at no thunderstorm activity today, and it will have higher temperatures and partly cloudy skies.

Source: The Arizona Weatherman, a seasoned meteorologist with over 25 years of experience in aviation meteorology with the United States Air Force, government contracting, and private practice, provides this forecast. His experience training Special Operations Weather Technicians (SOWT) in weather techniques and his state certification as a STEM teacher further underscore his expertise. His weather predictions are trustworthy.

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