2024 MLB Home Run Derby prediction, odds, best bets: Rangers' Adolis García primed at home, props to watch

ARLINGTON, Texas -- The 2024 Home Run Derby is set to take place here at Globe Life Field on Monday night. It's a marquee event on the MLB calendar, so let's make some plays here and have a little fun. As always, if you want to tail these, you are doing so by choice and it's your responsibility to bet responsibly. Here's how to watch the 2024 MLB Home Run Derby.

Here's the field with each player's odds to win as of Monday afternoon:

2024 MLB Home Run Derby odds

• Pete Alonso , Mets: +275
• Gunnar Henderson , Orioles: +375
• Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: +400
• Marcell Ozuna , Braves: +475
• Adolis García, Rangers: +575
• Teoscar Hernández, Dodgers: +1200
• José Ramírez, Guardians: +1600
• Alec Bohm , Phillies: +2000

It's no surprise that Alonso is the betting favorite. He's won it twice. Thinking about Hernández, and I don't know why this is, gave me a gut feeling just now that he's gonna put on a show. Ramírez has experience and that can help. I want to ride with the hometown hero, though.

The Play: Adolis García +575

The Rangers slugger having a bad season, by his standards, but we've seen his flare for the dramatic and he'll feed off the energy of the home fans. This is the first time a defending World Series champion has hosted the All-Star Game since the 1930s, which means this is the first Derby ever in the home of the champ. The place will be electric. The familiarity with the ballpark and the sight lines is a slight bonus. Adolis was in the Derby last year and did not advance past the first round, making it a learning experience. This time he is gonna take it.

Longest Home Run: Over 483.5

The longest home run this season has been a 476-footer from Shohei Ohtani , but the Derby is different. Luis Robert hit one 484 feet last year. The ball can fly in this ballpark, too, as Globe Life has the fourth-highest park factor for home runs in 2024. It's certainly better for distance than Seattle's T-Mobile, so that's another plus for the over. We'll be inside the building with the roof closed, but it's still very hot and that matters. We've seen over 470 in a regular-season game in this building -- Seth Brown and Mike Trout at 472 apiece -- and, again, the Derby will ratchet things up. We'll see one around 490.

Player to hit longest homer: Bobby Witt Jr. +190

Bobby Witt Jr. has the longest one of the bunch this season at 468. He also sports the longest average home run distance, if that strikes you as compelling. It's enough for me. He's the favorite, but it's still plus money. Let's run with him.