The New York Mets Have to Shift their Focus to a Very Tough Seattle Mariners Pitching Staff

The Mariners have excellent starting pitchers. The Mets will go up against some of their best. All three of the starters the Mets will face have an ERA in the threes.

Bryce Miller has the ball for game one. Miller has a 3.62 ERA in 22 starts. Like most Mariners starters, Miller controls the strike zone. He has a very solid 6.0 walk rate.

But Miller’s underlying numbers are not particularly impressive. His expected ERA is 4.20. Batters are only hitting .217 against Miller but his expected batting average against is .247. Miller’s slugging percentage against this year is .365 but opponents have an expected slugging percentage of .460.

Eventually, stats even out. Especially given the fact that Miller is in the worst 10 percent in barrel rate and exit velocity against, you would expect that Miller’s primary stats will get worse before the season is over.

We will see if the Mets can even out Miller’s stats tonight.

Logan Gilbert gets the ball in game two. Gilbert has been the Mariners’ best pitcher this year. Gilbert has the lowest ERA, the most innings and the most strikeouts on the team. He has 18 quality starts in 23 outings.

Gilbert leads qualifying pitchers with a 0.89 WHIP. The Mets will have a tough time getting on base. Gilbert has an excellent 4.6 walk rate. He has an elite pitch arsenal. Gilbert has a good fastball and he mixes in excellent off speed stuff.

The Mets face Luis Castillo in game three. Castillo had an electric stuff. His fastball and slider are elite. Both pitches are at least in the 90th percentile for run value.

His changeup has gotten hit hard. Opponents are hitting .306 and are slugging .529 against the pitch.

New York could find some success against Castillo if they can sit and attack the changeup.

It will be a tough series for the Mets bats. However, they can be unpredictable. Sometimes they struggle against pitchers with bad numbers and rise to the occasion against the league's best.