How Will Florida's Graham Mertz Perform Versus Miami?

The Aug. 31 Miami at Florida game pits a talented Canes defense against a sixth-year senior Gators quarterback.

Graham Mertz knows what it’s like to be under fire as his Wisconsin career did not go as he or the Badgers would likely prefer. After arriving at UF last season, much of the quarterback's time in Madison, Wis. should be considered moot because of his 2023 performance.

From 11 games, Mertz enters 2024 after completing 261 of 358 passing attempts for 72.9%, an 8.1 per attempt average, 2,903 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions ( CFB Stats ).

Just looking at the basic statistics, it’s clear Miami’s defense will face a quality passer inside The Swamp. There’s more to what Mertz brings to the first contest. Game by game, Mertz is also consistent.

Mertz’s went below the 60% passing mark only once – versus Florida State – during the 2023 season. His first six games include a stretch of games all above 70%. That’s impressive.

What Graham does best stems from connecting with receivers soon after the snap; he reads defenses well. That point allows Mertz opportunities to place the football in his playmakers’ hands and rack up first downs.

While Florida’s passing game generally features short-to-intermediate routes, Mertz methodically moves the football down the field. It will not be easy for the Hurricanes to bait him into risky passing attempts as he’s well-versed in using caution. However, there will be a key change for which receiver Mertz tries to complete passes that also needs to be noted.

Mertz’s go-to receiver Ricky Pearsall is off to the San Francisco 49ers but Florida also adds a talented receiver to the 2024 roster with former Arizona State player Elijah Badger , a fifth-year senior.

The 6-foot-2 and 190-pound pass catcher enters his time with the Gators after a 2023 season with 65 receptions, 713 yards, an average of 11 yards per catch, and 3 touchdowns. He could be Mertz’s security blanket and red zone threat. Combined with speedy sophomore Eugene Wilson III , it should be a good combination for Mertz to work with.

Wilson’s explosive speed is why Mertz consistently throws him quick screens and short passes to give him a chance to make defenders miss.

Wilson’s 2023 statistics include 61 receptions, 538 yards, an 8.8 average, and 6 touchdowns. Look for Mertz to throw the football down the field to Wilson more often this season as the young receiver better understands the Florida playbook. To keep Mertz from even holding a chance to complete passes, Miami will likely blitz and mix their coverages quite often.

The biggest concern for Mertz will be protection. Florida’s offensive line needs to improve after allowing 39 sacks last season. That’s one of the worst marks in college football. UM begins the 2024 campaign after totaling 35 sacks in 2023.

Led by Rueben Bain, Jr. and Akheem Mesidor along the defensive line and Francisco Mauigoa at middle linebacker, expect the Canes to consistently pressure Mertz. It's a fascniating battle as it seems Miami holds a decided edge.

If Mertz does receive ample time to scan the gridiron and pass, the Gators will all but certainly rack up big passing yards. Mertz is a proven commander behind center and Miami's passing defense needs to improve.

The secondary earns the moniker of being the biggest question mark entering 2024 with last season’s 55th passing defense allowing 216 yards per contest. There are new faces with safeties Kamren Kinchens and James Williams off to the NFL, too.

There’s certainly talent in Miami’s secondary but it must be more consistent to hold off Mertz’s passing efforts; UM's passing game is known to have mental errors. That must change against Mertz and the Gators.

19 days before Miami invades The Swamp to play Florida. How well the battle of Mertz against the UM defense plays out will go a long way in determining the winner.