5 Most Overrated Teams in AP Top 25 College Football Preseason Poll

With less than two weeks until the start of the 2024 college football season, the Associated Press released its preseason Top 25 on Monday.

The top of the rankings should come as little surprise to those who’ve followed the sport through the offseason. Georgia and Ohio State, widely viewed as the two top teams in the country, lead the way, followed by Oregon, Texas, Alabama and Ole Miss. After those top six, however, there is plenty of debate around the rankings.

On the heels of the AP’s preseason poll, Athlon Sports identifies five teams whose rankings are a bit suspect given questions entering the season.

5. Arizona Wildcats (AP No. 21)

Jedd Fisch parlayed one of college football’s better recent rebuilds at Arizona into the job at Washington. The program he leaves to new head coach Brent Brennan has plenty of promise, but maintaining the level of a team that had just about everything go right a year ago is a tall task.

Brennan and his staff did a great job of holding on to key players, including the elite pitch-and-catch duo of quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, Athlon preseason third- and first-team All-Big 12 selections at their respective positions. Attrition is almost guaranteed in college football now, especially following a coaching change. Arizona did lose a number of key players, notably along the defensive line, where three players left with Fisch for Washington. On paper, the team could compete for a Big 12 title in year one of its new conference affiliation, but with all of the change within the program, it would be wise to temper expectations.

4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (AP No. 17)

Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State program should be one of the major on-field beneficiaries of the new-look Big 12, with Oklahoma and Texas off to the SEC. The Cowboys also should contend for a College Football Playoff spot on the back of Heisman candidate running back Ollie Gordon II (1,732 yards, 21 touchdowns in 2023).

Whether the offense can reach its full potential depends on the arm of seventh-year quarterback Alan Bowman, who threw for 3,460 yards and 15 touchdown passes — but also 14 interceptions — a year ago. His most efficient college season came all the way back in 2018, when he was a freshman at Texas Tech. The defense also has been a major issue in recent years, finishing 89th in points allowed per game each of the past two seasons. The 2023 Cowboys had high peaks, including the Bedlam win over Oklahoma, but incredibly low valleys, namely blowout losses to South Alabama (33-7) and UCF (45-3).

3. Iowa Hawkeyes (AP No. 25)

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: Iowa enters the season with one of the country’s most impressive defenses, and an offense that may struggle to score.

Hawkeye fans can breathe a bit easier as the embattled Brian Ferentz, son of head coach Kirk Ferentz, is out as offensive coordinator. Former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester should be an upgrade, but there is no guarantee Iowa will field a competent unit, especially with upperclassman quarterback Cade McNamara’s reported struggles in training camp after missing most of 2023 with an injury.

The defense should be excellent once again, returning the bulk of the starting unit from last season, though the loss of cornerback Cooper DeJean will be significant. That side of the ball is used to dragging the Hawkeyes across the finish line, but it isn’t fair to assume that a team with one hand tied behind its back can contend for 10 wins and a top-25 finish every year.

2. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (AP No. 7)

Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame squad is talented, as always. Will this team take a solid step forward from its 10-3 record from a year ago? The AP ranking would suggest as much, as the Fighting Irish finished last season at No. 14, but that is far from guaranteed.

The biggest concerns come on offense, where Mike Denbrock takes over as coordinator after an impressive stint at LSU. Duke transfer Riley Leonard is a talented dual-threat quarterback, but he’s struggled to stay on the field. He missed all of spring football after playing in just seven games for the Blue Devils last year. He may be a more dynamic all-around player than last year’s starter, fellow ACC transfer Sam Hartman, but he’s less experienced and battle-tested. The Irish also are tasked with replacing the production of running back Audric Estime (1,341 rushing yards, 18 touchdowns) while breaking in three new starting offensive linemen. Among the departures is Joe Alt, the No. 5 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

1. Florida State Seminoles (AP No. 10)

The 2023 Florida State football team was one of the best teams in the country with quarterback Jordan Travis and likely would have been invited to the College Football Playoff if not for his devastating late-season injury. That said, the 2024 roster is littered with question marks after significant losses to graduation and the NFL Draft.

The Seminoles had 10 players selected in the 2024 draft , with six going in the top three rounds. On top of Travis’ departure, the FSU offense loses leading rusher Trey Benson, wide receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson and tight end Jaheim Bell. Oregon State transfer and former Clemson starter D.J. Uiagalelei should be competent behind a veteran offensive line, but the last time he looked like a potential gamebreaker under center, he was filling in for Trevor Lawrence. The Seminoles should compete to win the ACC and capture a Playoff berth, but rating them ahead of dynamic Missouri and Utah squads in the top 25 feels like a bridge too far right now.

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