As a National Championship Contender, Oregon Is Built Differently

Expert opinions are lining up behind Oregon as a national championship contender, but there's something subtly different about the way this team is constructed.

Yesterday Colin Cowherd picked Oregon to beat Ohio State in their regular season battle at Autzen Stadium on October 12th.

Cowherd said, “I think Oregon’s going to beat Ohio State in Eugene, because Dan Lanning has done something that I didn’t think a southern guy was going to do with no head coaching experience,” Cowherd said. “Immediately, I know what Oregon is. I really do. They’re a little Detroit Lions — relentless, they play hard.”

“I think Oregon matches up with Ohio State, and if you match-up with Ohio State, you match-up with everybody.”

In June Cover3 host Bud Elliott released his Blue-Chip ratio, "the 16 teams that can actually win a national title." Oregon easily makes the cut at 76%.

Elliott defines the Blue-Chip ratio this way:

To win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits (AKA "Blue Chips") than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes.

As a predictive model the ratio has held up over the last 13 seasons of the BCS and college football playoff. Every one of the 13 National Champions has had a blue-chip percentage of more than 50%. It takes a baseline of talent to win at the highest level.

For illustration, here's Elliott's review of the last six seasons under the four-team playoff format:

2023: Michigan won it all with a 54% mark.

2022: Georgia took home the title in dominant fashion with a 77% ratio.

2021: Georgia had an 80% BCR and won it all, beating the No. 1 BCR team, Alabama, in the title game. Three of the four CFP teams were BCR teams; Cincinnati was the first party crasher since 2017.

2020: Alabama had an 83% BCR and won it all. All four CFP teams were BCR schools.

2019: LSU won it with a 64% BCR. All four CFP teams were BCR schools.

2018: Clemson took it home with a 68% mark. All four CFP teams were BCR schools.

In the new 12-team era more schools will have a chance of making the playoff, but winning it requires three weeks of excellence at season's end against the top teams in the sport. That demands depth AND talent, increasing the odds the eventual champion will have a blue-chip pedigree.

But Elliott cautions, the ratio is not, "A substitute for player development, culture or coaching. All of those elements matter and are necessary to win the national title. The BCR is simply the minimum historical standard of recruiting necessary to win it all."

That last is important, because the Ducks have a challenge in relation to the other top contenders for national championship. The top three teams in this talent equation are truly loaded: Ohio State 90%, Alabama 88%, Georgia 80%.

What's more, they have more elite, exceptional talent, 5-star players, All-Americans and first round NFL draft picks. Conference rival Michigan has three players on the CBS Preseason All-America team, tight end Colston Loveland, defensive lineman Mason Graham, cornerback Will Johnson. Ohio State has two, guard Donovan Jackson and safety Caleb Downs. Carson Beck of Georgia is CBS' 1st Team All-American quarterback.

Not one Duck, though tackle Ajani Cornelius and quarterback Dillon Gabriel have gotten a few nods from other sites.

The 2025 NFL mock draft from draftnetwork.com has Beck going number four overall to the New York Giants and Georgia edge rusher Mykell Williams going number one in the draft to Carolina. Michigan's Will Johnson goes 6th to the Washington Commanders. Kelvin Banks, a left tackle from Texas, goes 7th. Graham, the defensive tackle from the Wolverines goes next. OG Jackson and TE Loveland, Ohio State and Michigan, are 11th and 12th. Alabama QB Jalen Milroe gets picked 13th by the Seattle Seahawks.

The latter stages of the first round include Tate Ratledge from the Bulldogs offensive line, the Wolverines' other defensive tackle Kenneth Grant, Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, Georgia safety Malaki Starks, Edge J.T. Tuimoloau of the Buckeyes, Georgia tight end Oscar Delp.

In all, five from Georgia, four from Michigan, three from Ohio State. Oregon won't get a first-round selection unless Jordan Burch, Evan Stewart, Cornelius or Josh Conerly put up sensational game film in 2024.

Yet Elliott believes the Ducks are one of the four teams poised to dominate the Big Ten this season.

What Oregon does have is depth, intelligent roster construction, overall competitiveness at every position, toughness and culture. If any team can break the stranglehold of the blue bloods, Michigan, Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, it's this one.

In 2024, Oregon is constructed a bit like the old New England Patriot teams in the NFL. They've got a smart, accurate quarterback, a great leader with exceptional work habits. They don't have the best player at any one position but they have smart, capable, experienced technicians throughout the lineup, players who believe in preparation and believe in each other. In a way they're a bit like last year's Washington team but with a better base of talent. As sacrilegious as that sounds, that's probably the best comparison.

The Ducks are built to survive and compete with anyone. That's why Cowherd thinks so highly of their chances to match up and beat Ohio State.