Future Bright at Oregon, but this Year, 2024, Is the Ducks' National Championship Window

If he stays at Oregon as he's vowed to do, Dan Lanning will win a national championship with the Ducks, maybe two or three.

He's stacking the recruiting classes and building the culture. He's responded to the problems in his organization and self-evaluated. His team, the players, the staff and the results have gotten better each year.

He's not the type to stop short of a goal, and he's already had a taste of ultimate success: He already has two National Championship rings, as defensive coordinator of the Georgia Bulldogs in 2022, and as a grad assistant at Alabama in 2015.

In the short term, however, this is the national championship window in Eugene. Otherwise, it's going to take a year or two more of patient building.

In any year it's a tough task. Opposing fans love to belittle the Ducks with the all-purpose meme, "Zero National Championships" but the reason that Oregon hasn't yet won one is simple: Very few teams have. Since 1998, the inaugural year college football's champion was settled on the field, Alabama has 6, Georgia, LSU, Florida, Ohio State, and Clemson have 2, and seven other schools have one each. It's an exclusive club. The votes and various polls of the now-distant past don't carry the same weight of accomplishment.

This year is as close as Oregon has ever been in terms of having the size, strength, depth and talent necessary to win it all. 2010 and 2014 were Cinderella stories; the Ducks rode a high-powered offense to dizzying heights, but each time they were manhandled in the final, the chief architects being Nick Fairley and Ezekiel Elliott.

2024 stands out for Ducks as a unique opportunity in their history because Dan Lanning not only has a team that is loaded and beautifully balanced, it's a team that's also loaded with experience and leadership:

Senior quarterback Dillon Gabriel

Senior-dominated offensive line with 144 career starts. Junior Josh Conerly is draft eligible.

Two senior starters at wide receiver in Traeshon Holden and Tez Johnson, junior Evan Stewart will be draft eligible.

Senior tight ends Terrance Ferguson and Patrick Herbert

Running backs Noah Whittington and Jordan James are draft eligible juniors.

Defensive lineman Jamaree Caldwell a senior, Derrick Harmon a draft eligible junior, Edge Jordan Burch a senior.

Linebackers Jeffrey Bassa and Jestin Jacobs both seniors, backups Connor Soelle and Bryce Boettcher both seniors

Secondary: Jabbar Muhammad, Kam Alexander, Kobe Savage, Brandon Johnson, Tysheem Johnson, Dontae Manning, Nikko Reed all seniors.

The cupboard will not be bare after these players leave, but next year and the year after will feature wholesale changes and new starters in key positions, particularly on the offensive line.

Casual fans think of the portal as a shiny new toy, a Magic Eight Ball that has the answer to every question. Trouble is, other schools are in the portal too. The market is such that you can find quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and defensive backs galore, but in particular, high-quality portal offensive linemen are scarce.

Those that are available come in three categories: injury reclamation projects, depth chart castoffs and outliers, a player like Ajani Cornelius who came out of high school as a zero-star recruit but developed and refined his body at FCS Rhode Island. Outliers are necessarily rare: Cornelius was an extraordinary find and a triumph of superior evaluation. A team will not find four Ajani Corneliuses in the portal, ever.

In truth, even with the portal, the foundation of any successful program will continue to be built brick-by-brick in high school recruiting. A coaching staff has to stack top recruiting classes filled with exceptional bodies. Top players look different and move differently. They're gems. They're identified early and compete differently.

In 2025 Lanning and his staff have to train a young team with a first-time starter at quarterback. (Moore did have five starts at UCLA, but those were disastrous. He's having to develop all over again with a better foundation.) The ceiling won't be as high. It will be a year too soon for last year's number three recruiting class and this year's (likely) top ten class to come to fruition. He'll have to stack one or two more.

The Ducks won't be bad or defenseless, but they'll be young. 2024 is the best chance for an immediate title for their third-year head coach. Next year they will be at Iowa, at Penn State, at Washington. They'll host Oklahoma State, USC and Wisconsin, but they'll miss Ohio State and Michigan unless they make it to the Big Ten Championship.

Getting that far with Dante Moore (a good young player, but a starter with limited experience) and a new offensive line and secondary would be a triumph of coaching and development.

They can build a team around younger stars like Moore, Jurrion Dickey, Jeremiah McClellan, Iapani Laloulu, Kenyon Sadiq on offense, Matayo Uiagalelei, Elijah Rushing, Teitum Tuioti, Devon Jackson, Aaron Flowers and Peyton Woodyard on defense, plus 5-star 2025 commits Trey McNutt, Dakorien Moore, Dallas Wilson and whoever else emerges in practice or passes up the NFL draft, but this will be a team in transition.

They haven't yet reached the reload level that's been achieved at Georgia, Ohio State or Alabama. That requires four to five years of top ten recruiting classes.

Yesterday Kobe Savage spoke about Flowers and Woodyard after practice. He said, "I feel like I've seen tremendous growth in Aaron. Coming in as a freshman and being able to pick up the scheme that fast---him and Peyton Woodyard also, they're very smart guys. I feel like they're gonna come in and play for us."

The portal can help, but it doesn't build the necessary foundation. 2024 is the year, for now.