Greg McElroy Reveals Keys For A Potential Florida Over Miami Upset In Week 1

The Florida Gators and Miami Hurricanes are renewing their in-state rivalry this season for the first time since 2019. Both programs have had their time in the sun, with Florida winning national titles in 1996, 2006, and 2008. Miami claims five national championships in 1983, 1987, 1989, 1991, and 2001.

Miami is a two-and-a-half-point favorite heading into the matchup. However, Greg McElroy explained what Florida needs to do to upset Miami on a recent episode of " Always College Football ."

Success starts between the trenches in college football, and McElroy agrees. He believed that Florida would need to dominate Miami on the offensive line to pull off an upset. Miami has bolstered its offensive and defensive lines under Mario Cristobal.

Former Marshall Thundering Herd defensive end Elijah Alston, defensive end Akheem Mesidor, and defensive end Rueben Bain Jr. return for Miami on the defensive line. Offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa leads the offensive line.

Led by center Jake Slaughter, Florida must put on a powerful display against the Miami defensive front.

"...If it's gonna happen on the field, it's probably going to happen along the lines of scrimmage," McElroy said. "If you think about what Miami has solidified in the last two years, offensive and defensive lines. ...If Florida beats them, it means their offensive line had a heck of a day against an outstanding defensive front."

Quarterback Graham Mertz was one of the top returning players for Florida this season. After transferring from the Wisconsin Badgers, Mertz solidified himself as the starter in Gainesville last season. Mertz had 2,903 passing yards with 20 touchdowns and three interceptions in 2023.

McElroy expects a big game from Mertz if Florida beats Miami in Gainesville. Miami's secondary ranked 55th in pass defense last season.

"...It also means that Graham Metz probably took advantage of a secondary that, right now, I've heard great things, but it's still fall camp," McElroy said. "Probably took advantage of a secondary that was somewhat gettable last year. They were 55th last year in pass defense."

Lastly, McElroy added that Florida's defense will need to improve greatly from last season. The Miami offense will be very talented, with additions like former Washington State Cougars quarterback Cam Ward and former Oregon State Beavers running back Damien Martinez.

On top of that, Miami returns its two best receivers from 2023, Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George. Florida allowed the ninth-most passing yards in the SEC last season with 226.7 per game. The Gators also ranked 12th in the rushing per game in the SEC with 155.6.

"...It also means too with the additions that Miami made offensively, Cam Ward and Damien Martinez, some of the holdovers from last year at wide receiver with Xavier Restrepo and company, maybe Florida's defense has made drastic improvement from where they were last year in year one under Austin Armstrong." McElroy said.

According to McElroy, a win over Miami in Week 1 could significantly impact Billy Napier's career. Napier has two ranked wins from 2022-23. McElroy predicted that Florida would be bowl-eligible at the end of the regular season.

"...Now, how would it affect Billy Napier? McElroy said. "I think it would take the monkey off his back to a certain extent. People have already put him on the hot seat and all sorts of stuff. I don't subscribe to that necessarily because I think he's got a good team this year, and I think they're going to get to bowl-eligible."

Florida faces No. 19 Miami on Aug. 31 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

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