Expert Predicts Giants To Decline in 2024

Just about everything went wrong for the New York Giants in 2023. Playing three quarterbacks is never ideal, starting 11 different offensive linemen made them unwatchable.

New York made critical additions in the offseason, adding edge rusher Brian Burns and LSU receiver Malik Nabers . Both have the potential to change the fortunes of their respective units and ascend to new heights in the Big Apple.

But the Giants are going to need more than a couple of standout performances to improve upon last year’s 6-11 record.

In ESPN’s exploration of the teams most likely to decline in 2024 , the Giants made the cut – good news for those in love with the 2025 quarterback class but suboptimal for everyone else’s job security.

Getting quarterback Daniel Jones back, healthy, should be a boost to last year’s anemic offense. But Jones has won more than six games just once in five seasons. There’s a reason every mock draft has New York landing a quarterback in Round 1.

“Jones is back, but should the Giants really expect a boost?” Bill Barnwell asked. “He now has one season of even average quarterback play over his five-year career. He was outplayed by journeyman Tyrod Taylor last season. If you leave aside scrambles, his 27.9 QBR ranked 45th among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts in 2023.”

Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito was one of the five qualifying quarterbacks with a worse mark.

Barnwell also cites a fluky turnover differential as a reason for regression. Teams banking on unsustainable defensive play, turnover luck, and one-score victories are more prone to falling short in future seasons.

Fumbles are only going to bounce your way so many times; players are only going to stay so healthy. Sometimes, the game-crippling call screws your favorite team over. It’s a dance in random variance, and some team has to have the best luck in a given year.

The standings told a different story, but New York’s turnover differential didn’t make sense in 2023. Don’t count on the football gods overlooking that flaw two years in a row.

“I can envision a scenario in which New York improves,” Barnwell wrote. “Jones, who was average to very good during the 2022 season, stays healthy. Evan Neal moves inside to guard, Jermaine Eluemunor takes over at tackle and the much-maligned offensive line improves in two spots. Maybe Nabers is the second coming of Odell Beckham Jr., and a young defense rides an excellent front four to adequacy.

“Put all that together in a division in which the top two teams took a step backward, and you could imagine a world in which the Giants put together an eight- or nine-win season.”

New York has made additions to both sides of the ball – beyond its high-profile stars – to help raise the floor of the roster and inject young talent and athleticism .

It may take time to gel, but starting two Day 2 rookies in safety Tyler Nubin and corner Dru Phillips should be a reason for optimism, despite short-term turbulence. Offensively, it’s clear that the front office is keen on bolstering the trenches and keeping Jones upright.

Related: Way-Too-Early Mock Draft: Giants Pick QB First Overall

Still, it’s easy to be pessimistic about a team with poor quarterback play, a worse running game, and little proof of concept outside of the front seven. The Giants are rebuilding. This year was always going to be about building the best roster for the next quarterback and hoping Jones can ascend in the process. These struggles should be expected, even if it dampens the excitement for the new season.

“If everything goes right, the Giants will be fine,” Barnwell concluded. “I'm just skeptical we'll see most of those things occur. As it stands, they look like a team with too many replacement-level players on their roster with a difficult-to-sustain formula for winning, built around a quarterback who hasn't often been healthy or good.”