Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Prediction

Saturday marks a new era in Tuscaloosa, with Kalen DeBoer coaching his first game at Alabama after taking over for the retired Nick Saban. The former Washington head coach will begin his tenure with a home game against one of Conference USA’s best teams, Western Kentucky.

Alabama expects to hit the ground running in year one under DeBoer, despite the seismic coaching change. The team held onto starting quarterback Jalen Milroe, who finished higher in 2023 Heisman Trophy voting than any other returning player in college football. He will lead a new-look offense under DeBoer, who coached Michael Penix Jr. into a Heisman finalist and first-round pick at Washington. Unlike Penix, Milroe is a dangerous runner, bringing an element that was not present in the Huskies’ electric offense a year ago. WKU, meanwhile, enters year six under Tyson Helton. The Hilltoppers are about as consistent as it gets for a Group of 5 program, with eight or nine wins in four of Helton’s five seasons, capped by bowl wins in each of those four years. The team is still hunting for a Conference USA title though, something it hasn’t won since 2016 under Jeff Brohm.

Alabama is 3-0 against Western Kentucky, with the series dating back to 2008. The last game took place in 2016, a 38-10 win for the Tide.

Alabama vs. Western Kentucky

Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala.
Kickoff: Saturday, Aug. 31 at 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Spread: Alabama -31.5
Over/Under: 59.5
Announcers: Dave Pasch, Dusty Dvoracek and Taylor McGregor

Why Alabama Will Win

Any school would be concerned about having to replace Saban, but DeBoer was about as good a hire as the Crimson Tide could have made, especially for a program that won’t suffer a rebuild. DeBoer inherited a 4-8 Washington team in 2022, elevating them to 11-2 in his first year before going 14-1 and finishing as the national runner-up in ’23. At Alabama he takes over a team that is coming off of an SEC championship and College Football Playoff appearance.

The Tide have undergone serious roster turnover this season, but the core remains very impressive. Milroe will play behind a stacked offensive line, with returning starters Kadyn Proctor , Tyler Booker and Jaeden Roberts joined by Washington transfer Parker Brailsford at center . After Alabama’s well-documented snap issues last season, the former freshman All-American center should be an upgrade for the unit. They should have great success opening up holes for running backs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes against a leaky Hilltoppers defense that surrendered 190 yards per game on the ground a year ago. We may not get a great look at Milroe in DeBoer’s high-flying passing attack, as the running game should be able to routinely gash WKU’s front seven.

The strength of Alabama’s defense will be its front seven, and once again Western Kentucky finds itself in a serious mismatch. The Hilltoppers offense averaged just 3.84 yards per carry last season, and was ranked 119th in the FBS in rushing yards per game. Without serious improvement on the ground, Alabama’s pass rush will be able to pin ears back and get after WKU QB TJ Finley. Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack, the former head coach at South Alabama, is very familiar with Finley from previous Sun Belt matchups as well.

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Why Western Kentucky Will Win

Helton has turned WKU into a plug-and-play passing offense factory. The Hilltoppers aerial assault peaked in 2021, when Bailey Zappe threw for an unthinkable 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns, but Austin Reed was plenty productive over the last two years, with 8,086 yards and 71 touchdowns. Fresh off of a record season at Texas State, TJ Finley steps in at quarterback for WKU, and should keep things rolling in Bowling Green.

That is good news for the Hilltoppers entering a matchup with the Crimson Tide this year. Alabama’s inexperienced secondary is the biggest question for this year’s Wommack and Mo Linguist-led defense, which shifts from Saban’s 3-4 to a 4-2-5, though the two alignments share similarities. Safety Malachi Moore is an Athlon preseason second-team All-America selection , and should be a real playmaker at the back of the defense, but he’s surrounded by a number of new faces. Michigan transfer Keon Sabb will join him in the back of the defense, including transfers Keon Sabb (Michigan), Domani Jackson (USC) and DaShawn Jones (Wake Forest). It’s a talented group, but one that has not spent much time together. Losing Saban, perhaps college football’s great defensive backs coach, doesn’t help either.

Finley put Texas State on the map in Week 1 last year, throwing for 298 yards and three touchdowns in a stunning 42-31 win at Baylor . He’ll have some quality targets to throw to as well, including MIchael Mathison (615 yards, three TDs in ’22) and Dalvin Smith (538 yards, six TDs in ’23). Alabama is a massive step up from a bad 2023 Bears team, but that is the kind of performance WKU will need to pull off its own historic upset. It would be a storybook moment for a quarterback whose college career included stops at both LSU and Auburn.

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Final Analysis

Western Kentucky should be competitive in Conference USA once again — Athlon projects the team to finish No. 2 in the league — but that does not equate to a win in Alabama. DeBoer has done an impressive job of maintaining the talent level in Tuscaloosa while reshaping the program in his own vision. Time will tell whether it translates into wins in December and January, but the Tide won’t be challenged in Week 1.

Prediction: Alabama 49, Western Kentucky 17

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