Oregon hosts Boise State on Saturday night for one of the premier games in Week 2 of the 2024 college football season. Both the Ducks and Broncos had close calls in Week 1 but managed to prevail and will be looking for an overall jump in play this Saturday.
With one spot in the new 12-team CFB Playoff going to the highest-rated Group of 5 champion, Boise State has a chance to claim an early hold on that position if it can go on the road and beat Oregon. Behind running back Ashton Jeanty's 267 rushing yards, coach Spencer Danielson's squad edged Georgia Southern 56-45 last week. A loss in Eugene doesn't necessarily hurt Boise State's chances of earning the CFB Playoff spot for a G5 team, but a good showing here or a close loss could certainly matter on the margins.
Similar to Boise State, Oregon is looking for a better overall performance in Week 2. Coach Dan Lanning's team surprisingly let Idaho hang around before winning 24-14. The Ducks outgained the Vandals 487 to 217 but struggled at the line of scrimmage and failed to finish a couple of drives in Idaho territory. For a team with aspirations of CFB Playoff and Big Ten title consideration, Oregon's opening performance was alarming - but also nothing to panic over with 11 games remaining.
Boise State leads the all-time series against Oregon 3-0. These two teams have not played since the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl.
Boise State at Oregon
Location: Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore.
Kickoff: Saturday, Sept. 7 at 10 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock
Spread: Oregon -19.5
Over/Under: 61.5
Announcers: Andrew Siciliano, Michael Robinson, and Laura Britt
Why Boise State Will Win
Boise State hasn't defeated a power conference opponent since 2019, but Danielson's squad won't be intimated by the tough environment in Eugene. The Broncos have recent hostile environment experience after playing at Washington last fall, but belief alone won't be enough to win on Saturday night.
A path to victory for Boise State has to start with Jeanty. The preseason All-American repeatedly gashed Georgia Southern with big plays on the ground last week and needs to have a big-time performance for the Broncos to have any shot at winning. Although Jeanty is likely to find the sledding more difficult on Saturday night than he did in Week 1, Oregon has new faces along the defensive front still acclimating to Lanning's defense. Can an experienced Boise State offensive line and Jeanty find ways to consistently move the ball and keep the Ducks off balance?
After edging Malachi Nelson for the starting quarterback job this fall, Maddux Madsen was solid (22 of 31 for 280 yards and a score) last week. Boise State needs more out of Madsen to win, but while the Ducks have a talented secondary, a couple of transfers are transitioning to the new defense. If Jeanty is held in check, Madsen needs to win this game with his arm and a capable set of receivers that includes Cam Camper, Latrell Caples, Chris Marshall, Prince Strachan, and tight end Matt Lauter.
With seven returning starters, Boise State should have one of the Mountain West's top defenses in '24. And after seeing Oregon struggle at times offensively last week, a unit that's effective at getting to the quarterback (36 sacks in '23) could create disruption in the trenches against Gabriel and the Ducks' rushing attack.
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Why Oregon Will Win
Last week's close call against Idaho should be a wake-up call for Lanning's squad. In addition to more urgency and a cleaner game in Week 2, the Ducks should benefit from a few more days for new faces to mesh on both sides of the ball.
Transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel completed 41 passes for 380 yards and two touchdowns against Idaho, with Tez Johnson (12 catches), Evan Stewart (three), and Traeshon Holden (three) his top targets at receiver, along with tight end Terrance Ferguson (seven). The Broncos finished '23 ranked seventh in the Mountain West in pass efficiency defense and Georgia Southern was able to move the ball through the air (322 yards) last week. That combination of stats should give Gabriel a chance to eclipse 300 yards once again and spark the offense in his second start.
In addition to countering Gabriel's accuracy, Boise State has to contend with a deep group of skill players for Ducks. In addition to the receiving targets mentioned above, Oregon's backfield featuring the one-two punch of Jordan James and Noah Whittington should be a handful for a Broncos' unit that allowed nearly 135 yards (134.8) on the ground last fall. Also, there's optimism the offensive line issues that plagued this team in Week 1 could be solved if guard Matthew Bedford is able to return from injury.
Lost in Oregon's performance against Idaho was a defense that limited the Vandals to 10 first downs, 217 total yards (4.6 a snap), and surrendered just two third-down conversions over 12 attempts. The Ducks brought back four starters from last season and fortified this unit in the trenches and in the secondary through the portal. Boise State's offense is a greater test for Lanning's defense, but the early returns on the transfer additions and the overall upside of this group are as good as advertised.
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Final Analysis
Expect Oregon to deliver a sharper performance in Week 2 and rebound overall after a poor showing against Idaho. Jeanty and the Boise State ground game will keep this one close for a while. But eventually, the Ducks' high-powered offense gets on track in the second half, and the defense steps up with key stops to pull away in the final two quarters.
Prediction: Oregon 41, Boise State 20
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