Vikings vs. Giants: 5 things you can count on

The Minnesota Vikings will open the regular season by traveling to face the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium at noon on Sunday.

Sunday's game is the beginning of a new era for the Vikings, who have plenty of new faces such as Sam Darnold and Aaron Jones but return key cornerstones such as Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw and Harrison Smith.

The new pieces make Sunday's game hard to predict but here are five things you can count on Sunday afternoon.

Related: 3 keys to victory for Vikings vs. Giants

1. An improved running game

This is a leap of faith considering head coach Kevin O'Connell's first two seasons as Vikings head coach.

Minnesota has ranked 27th and 29th in rushing the past seasons and while the Vikings' volume is unlikely to increase, Aaron Jones could bring some much-needed efficiency.

Jones was a key acquisition by the Vikings this offseason, running for 656 yards and a pair of touchdowns in 11 games with the Green Bay Packers last season.

Vikings roster preview: Can Aaron Jones elevate Minnesota's run game?

But while the overall stats are nice, Jones was efficient as well, posting a league-high 62% success rate – which measures a back's efficiency to gain 40% of yards needed on first down, 60% of yards on second down and 100% of yards needed on third and fourth down – among running backs last season.

By comparison, Dalvin Cook had a 47.3% success rate in 2022 and Alexander Mattison had a 45% success rate while serving as the Vikings' lead back last season.

Going up against a Giants defense that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards last season, this is a spot for the Vikings' ground game to start the year strong and Jones and Ty Chandler could be primed to take advantage.

2. Dallas Turner's breakout game

One of the most intriguing storylines heading into Sunday's game is the debut of Dallas Turner. The Alabama product was one of the top edge rushers in last April's draft and his athleticism and versatility could be on display against the Giants.

Turner posted a 9.49 relative athletic score heading into the draft, which takes into account a player's athletic testing results in relation to his height and weight. While the score ranked 85th out of 1,637 edge rushers drafted since 1987, it's also in the same neighborhood as Micah Parsons, who has recorded 40.5 sacks in his first three seasons with the Dallas Cowboys.

Related: Vikings roster preview: How much should be expected out of Dallas Turner as a rookie?

Turner also can play multiple spots on defense which is a dream for defensive coordinator Brian Flores. While the Vikings lost Danielle Hunter in free agency, Turner could represent a faster group that also includes free-agent acquisitions Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel.

While the Giants revamped their offensive line with the signings of Jon Runyan, Greg Van Roten and Jermaine Eluemunor, they're also playing in front of Daniel Jones, who had the league's worst passer rating under pressure at 35.2 last season. This creates an opportunity for Turner and the rest of the Vikings' pass rush to feast and could result in a massive debut for the rookie.

3. A successful debut for Sam Darnold

This will require some manifesting but Darnold has the tools he needs to take advantage of a shaky Giants defense.

New York allowed the seventh-most points in the NFL last season and their 5.6 yards allowed per play ranked fifth. While the Giants tied for first in turnovers – a key weakness for Darnold – they also had trouble getting to the quarterback, ranking 18th with a 20.9% pressure rate and 29th with 34 sacks last season.

The Giants did their best to upgrade their pass rush, trading for Brian Burns from the Carolina Panthers and adding him to Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence.

Related: As Sam Darnold returns to MetLife Stadium, Vikings hope he takes off like he never did with Jets

But with the departure of Wink Martindale, the Giants may scale back on their 45.4% blitz rate, the second-highest in the NFL behind the Vikings (51.5%) last season.

In Darnold's last extended stint as a starter with Carolina in 2022, Darnold's turnover-worthy play rate – defined by PFF as a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling – dropped from 4.5% when blitzed to 1.9% when not blitzed.

If the Vikings can keep Darnold clean, he should be able to get the ball where it needs to go and have a successful debut on Sunday.

4. A reliable kicker

We get it. This is the Vikings. There are scars from kickers that are deep enough for the Joker to ask "Where did you get those?" But the Vikings may have found their answer in Will Reichard.

Reichard was automatic for the Vikings this offseason, making 35-of-39 field goal and PAT attempts during training camp and the offseason according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert.

Vikings roster preview: Will Reichard is the man for the job

Reichard backed this up in the preseason by leading the NFL with 29 points and booted a 57-yard field goal in the finale against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Reichard still may miss at the worst possible time (because, hey, this is Vikings football) but he might be their most reliable kicker they've had in a long time and it could get off to a good start with a solid outing against the Giants.

5. A win to open the season

Playing on the road is a difficult proposition for the Vikings but this is a game they should be able to handle. With Jones' struggles under pressure and some rust coming off a torn ACL, the Vikings should be able to keep him in check even with the addition of explosive rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers.

Prediction: Vikings 16, Giants 10