The Atlanta Falcons and the A.J. Terrell Problem

The Atlanta Falcons have backed themselves into a corner of sorts.

Problem:

In the 2020 NFL draft, the Falcons drafted Clemson cornerback A.J. Terrell 16th overall. Even at the time, A.J. was a semi-controversial pick after his lackluster performance in the college football playoffs against the juggernaut of the LSU offense, and with him selected over star Oklahoma wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who has gone on to cement himself as a top 5 wide receiver in the game.

Terrell has not necessarily been the problem. He’s actually had a pretty solid career so far in the A with a stat line of:

• 61 starts
• 247 total tackles, 183 solo
• Four interceptions (0 in the past two seasons)
• 43 PBUs

Terrell also has the accolade of being an AP Second-Team All-Pro in 2021.

A.J.’s tenure has really been alright. Not too many complaints on the surface. He doesn’t miss many games and racks up tackles and PBU’s. But there are flaws in his game, and that’s where the problem lies.

What does A.J. do well?

Terrell has the perfect frame you would expect of a CB1 in today’s NFL. Coming in at 6’1”, 195 lbs., and looks like a prototype cornerback. So there shouldn’t be too many size complaints about Terrell. He looks the part. The length, frame and athleticism allow Terrell to consistently make plays like this.

Terrell also had established himself as a strong corner while in zone coverage with his ability to sit and read the quarterback's eyes.

Play above, drops into zone coverage, reads the route and the QB and flips the hips for the nice PBU.

Another example of him sitting, reading, flipping in for the play. If A.J. can sit with his hips to the sideline, he will read and react with the best of them in the league. It’s truly impressive.

Where does A.J. struggle?

Some people in this section might initially talk about Terrell’s lack of interceptions. And truthfully, that is a bit of a problem. But it’s not a massive deal. We do see good corners struggle with INT numbers occasionally. Former Falcon CB1 Desmond Trufant was the same way.

Honestly, Terrell’s biggest issue is he struggles when matching up against wide receivers who win with physicality.

You can see it a bit here, but on the cut to the outside, Kupp separates quickly and violently creating space between Terrell and himself.

This route is a prime example of the biggest knock on Terrell. Mike Evans is one of the biggest and strongest receivers in the game. A.J. tries to out-muscle him on the downfield route and reroute him, which, in theory, is a good idea. The execution just goes so poorly and leads to a touchdown.

What’s the problem though?

The problem that the Falcons are facing isn’t paying AJ Terrell. It’s the fact that they lost all the leverage in the conversation. The Falcons have waited and started letting other cornerbacks get paid first, and the dominos have started falling.

Other similar corners that started getting paid are Jaylon Johnson of the Chicago Bears , L’Jarius Sneed of the Tennessee Titans , and most recently, Tyson Campbell from the Jacksonville Jaguars .

• Johnson’s contract breakdown was: 4 years, $76 million, $51 guaranteed and an average per year of $19 million.
• Sneed signed a contract of 4 years, $76.4 million, $51.5 million guaranteed and an average of $19.1 million per year.
• Campbell’s contract breakdown was 4 years, $76.5 million, $53.4 guaranteed, and an average per year of $19.125 million.

While looking at these contracts, what makes them interesting is that Johnson is the only member of this trio who has any accolades, and that is one Pro Bowl nod. Sneed is a two-time Super Bowl winner but has no real individual accolades. Campbell has no individual accolades and is the highest-paid of the three.

All three of these corners listed above are undisputed CB1s for their team. Similarly to AJ Terrell, and also similarly to Terrell none of them have truly become shutdown corners. At least by accolade standards. On film, opinions may vary. All three have also set themselves firmly into the current top-ten highest-paid corners, with Campbell planting himself firmly at seventh. At sixth, with an APY of $19.4 million, is a tie between New Orleans Saints Marshon Lattimore and Dallas Cowboys Trevon Diggs.

The Falcons have allowed themselves such little wiggle room in negotiations. Terrell and his All-Pro deserve to get paid more than Campbell and his zero accolades, but he doesn’t necessarily deserve to get paid more than Diggs or even Lattimore because their accolades are better, and they have better resumes.

The Falcons have taken their feet out from under them by failing to ever truly solve the CB2 situation with Terrell here. If they decide not to pay Terrell whatever money he commands, you leave a MASSIVE hole in an already questionable secondary.

But if you let Terrell reset the market at his price, you’re drastically overpaying for a corner with some noticeable flaws.

Regardless of what happens with AJ Terrell’s contract, the Falcons have put General Manager Terry Fontenot in a tough negotiation with super agent David Mulugheta, who is known for getting his guys paid because it gets him paid. (He made 38 million in commissions in 2022.)

Good luck Terry. It looks like you’re going to need it.

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