Data Darlings: Braves Pitching By the Numbers

The team ERA lead in Major League Baseball is currently a tie between the Atlanta Braves and Seattle Mariners at 3.48.

Atlanta ranks second with a 2.95 bullpen ERA and fifth with a 3.79 starting rotation ERA. Through disappointing offensive production, the Braves hurlers have kept the club afloat and in playoff position (tied for top wild card spot).

Those numbers speak for themselves, but Atlanta's pitching has the data to back it up.

Four Braves pitchers are in the top fifth percentile in expected weighted on base percentage and three of them in barrel percentage. This includes three relievers: Joe Jiménez , Raisel Iglesias and Aaron Bummer , as well as All-Star starting pitcher, Chris Sale .

Jiménez is Atlanta's best all-around option. The right-handed set up man is in the top three percentile in eight categories, including the very top of the ladder in hard-hit percentage. He might not have gaudy swing-and-miss stuff, but he simply does not give up hard hits, as he also ranks in the 97th percentile in barrel rate. In 44 innings this season, Jiménez has only allowed one homer and 11 earned runs – good for a career-best 2.25 ERA.

Though highly underrated, the offseason acquisition of Bummer, a left-handed middle reliever, is looking genius. He and Jiménez might not be striking out many batters, but like Jiménez, Bummer is not giving up hard hits – he is in the 100th percentile in both barreled balls and barrel rate. Pair that with Dylan Lee's 99th percentile chase rate and 96th percentile WHIFF rate, and it's no wonder why the Braves bullpen is locking down games.

The Braves bullpen is so loaded that it had to option Lee (2.00 ERA) to Triple-A Gwinnett on Sunday to make room on the roster for Max Fried coming off the injured list. (Lee was the only reliever with options remaining).

And that's before you get to Iglesias, who might just be the best closer in baseball right now. Again, the 34-year-old might not get the love he deserves because he isn't throwing triple digits or striking out batters by the dozen. But like the others, soft contact is the name of his game – his 98th percentile in barreled balls allowed transfers to a 1.73 ERA and 23 saves on the season.

While the bullpen is simple but effective, the starting pitching brings the flashy stuff. The rotation was represented by three All-Star starters: Sale, Fried and Reynaldo López. While López's metrics won't sweep you off your feet, Sale and Fried's top three percentiles in exit velocity are no surprise for the only pitching staff in baseball with two starters in the top five in ERA.

Sale (first, 14.2%), Fried (third, 12.4%) and López (t-fourth, 12.1%) all rank in the top five in non-competitive swing rate (min. 500 results). That transfers to all three starters having over 100 strikeouts, led by Sale at fifth in baseball with 159.

Then rookie Spencer Schwellenbach entered the rotation at the end of May and has solidified his spot in the rotation with 38 Ks and one walk in his last five starts since the beginning of July. The 24-year-old's 98th percentile chase rate and 97th percentile walk rate simply means he's in Atlanta's rotation to stay, probably even when October rolls around.

This pitching staff has carried the Braves through this season, and it will be asked to do more of the same if they hope to make it past the NLDS for the first time since winning it all in 2021. And the future looks bright beyond 2024. Fried and Schwellenbach are on one-year deals, but the good news is Atlanta has plenty of great options going into 2025 – ones not many foresaw this offseason.

Sale and López headline that list, while Bummer, Iglesias and Jiménez are making the front office look like wizards in the midst of multi-year deals. With Schwellenbach shoving at this rate and Morton's return also unsure, expect the rookie to be among the group with long-term contracts very soon, too.