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Stadium Rant
Controversial College Football Over-Win Totals
By William Luke Hendrick,
12 hours ago
As the college football season draws closer, it's time to look into the future markets.
With the college football landscape changing more than ever with conference realignment and the transfer portal, specific teams are under the radar in the betting market.
Here are eight teams you should bet on to smash their win totals.
College Football Over-Win Totals
1. Auburn Over 7.5 Wins +124
Hugh Freeze has a trend of teams making large jumps in his second season. In 2011, Freeze took on his first head coaching position with Arkansas State, leading the Red Wolves to an 11-2 season, a considerable leap from their 4-8 record the year before.
A year later, he became the 37th head coach for the Ole Miss Rebels, achieving a 7-5 record in his first year. The following year, he further improved the Rebels' performance, securing a 9-3 record and marking a historic victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa for the first time since 1988. Later, with Liberty, Freeze attained a 7-5 record in his first year and an impressive 10-1 record in the following season.
With Auburn overhauling its roster with experienced and young talent, the only remaining question for the Tigers is whether Payton Thorne can perform well enough for Auburn to make a mark in the SEC.
2. USC Over 7.5 Wins +100
USC is currently being undervalued. Last season, the team's performance was hindered by its bottom-14 defensive unit, which was under the guidance of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch.
With Grinch no longer in the picture, former UCLA defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn has been brought in. Lynn successfully led UCLA to a top-ten defensive ranking last season.
If the Trojans' defense can perform at an average level, USC can hit the over on its win total, thanks to its highly potent offense led by Lincoln Riley, the country's best offensive-minded head coach.
3. Oklahoma State Over 8.5 Wins +122
The Pokes are returning the fourth-most production in the nation; apart from that, production is the nation's top offensive line, having experience and production with over 200 starts played together.
Running back Ollie Gordon II is back for another season; he saw success behind this offensive line, rushing for a league-high 1,732 yards, winning the Doak-Walker Award, and finishing seventh in Heisman voting. Along with Quarterback, Alan Bowman is set to return for his second season in Stillwater and his seventh year of college football.
The only thing that could hold back the Pokes is its defense. In 2023, the defense ranked 122nd in total defense but is set to return ten of its eleven starters from the previous season, and defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo is back for his second season. If Nardo can get right the ship with his defense, Oklahoma State could surprise people and smash this win total.
4. Virginia Tech 0ver 8.5 Wins +128
Virginia Tech is a team that flies under the radar in the ACC. The Hokies have the most returning production in the country, with 95% of the offense and 77% of the defense returning.
Eight out of the eleven offensive starters are seniors, and ten out of the eleven defensive starters are seniors. Despite starting 1-3, they finished the season strong, winning six out of their last nine games to end with a 7-6 record.
Their schedule is manageable, but dates at Miami in week five and Clemson coming to town in week eleven headline the Hokies slate.
5. Boise State Over 9.5 Wins +108
After parting ways with Andy Avalos, interim Head Coach Spencer Danielson led the Broncos to a 3-1 record. Danielson's interim title was removed after a Mountain West Title game victory.
The team strengthened its roster by adding former USC quarterback Malachi Nelson through the transfer portal. Additionally, running back Ashton Jeany, who amassed the 11th most rushing yards (1,347), is set to return for the upcoming season. The team is also bringing back four out of five starters on the offensive line.
However, the Broncos' defense needs improvement. It finished as the No. 55 scoring defense (allowing 25.14 points per game) and the No. 71 total defense (allowing 385.1 yards per game).
6. Memphis Over 9.5 Wins +128
The Memphis Tigers have the third-most returning production in the AAC from a team that went 10-3 and 6-2 in conference play.
They are headlined by the AAC's top-scoring offense, which has seven returning starters. Quarterback Seth Henigan leads the Tigers, being the all-time leading passer, with two of the top AAC wide receivers in Roc Taylor (1,083 yards) and Demeer Blankumsee (901). Additionally, running back Mario Anderson from South Carolina, who ran for 707 yards last season, has been added via the transfer portal.
With the Tigers' potent offense, hitting ten wins is achievable with a schedule of only two tough road opponents in Florida State and Tulane.
7. Clemson Over 9.5 Wins +138
Last season, Clemson had the most snaps played by freshmen in the nation (3,991). Despite this, they finished the season strong, winning their last five games and achieving a 9-4 record.
To hit this mark, the Tigers will need an all-around better offense. Quarterback Cade Klubnik will need to develop more consistent play after posting a 19-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The offensive line will need to keep him upright, and the wide receivers will need to create more separation.
The defense should be a strong unit again after ranking in the top ten in total defense and passing defense and tied for first in turnovers gained per the NCCA .
Clemson's schedule is favorable, with only a visit to Florida State in week six, home games against NC State, and a matchup against Georgia in Atlanta in week one.
8. Oregon Over 10.5 Wins +100
Oregon has one of the most talented rosters in the country and should be an instant contender in the Big Ten.
The Ducks boasted one of the nation's top offenses, averaging 44.2 points per game and 531.4 yards per game last season, and this year should be no different.
They added quarterback Dillion Gabriel through the transfer portal. Gabriel will have tons of talent around him. The nation's top wide receiver room is headlined by Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden, and Gary Bryant Jr. , who combined for 892 yards and ten touchdowns in 2023.
The offensive line is in good hands, with tackles Josh Conerly Jr and Ajani Cornelius forming one of the top OT tandems. The interior offensive line should be a strong unit with Iapani Laloulu taking over at center for Jackson Powers-Johnson, playing in all 14 games; left guard Marcus Harper II is back, and Indiana transfer Matthew Bedford projects as the starter at right guard.
While the Ducks' defense will look significantly different, as they lost multiple starters, they added playmakers through the portal on the defensive line and in the secondary.
The Ducks' most challenging game is against the Ohio State Buckeyes at home, but they could lose that game and still reach the over 10.5-win total.
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