Austin's violent crime is on the decline

New preliminary data from major U.S. cities, including Austin, shows a sharp drop in violent crime in the first half of the year as the COVID-era crime wave recedes.

Why it matters: The drop in violent crime puts a dent in one of the most frequently used lines of attack by former President Trump and his allies, who have sought to tie Democrats to the issue since 2020.

• It also gives Vice President Kamala Harris, a former prosecutor in San Francisco and California attorney general, a defense against attacks from the right on crime.

Zoom in: Locally, the drop in crime comes as Mayor Kirk Watson seeks re-election.

• His opponents — two community organizers and a former City Council member — have criticized his ill-fated, short-lived partnership with the Texas Department of Public Safety — which ended in July 2023 — but heading into November he'll be able to point to the drop in crime.

Yes, but: APD still has 334 vacancies out of a force of 1,812 sworn officers, per a late June city briefing .

• That's up from 278 vacancies in late 2022 .

By the numbers: An Axios analysis of data from the Major Cities Chiefs Association found an overall 6% decline in violent crime among 69 cities during the first six months of 2024 compared to the same period last year.

• Austin saw a 28% drop, after leaders were criticized over crime rates in recent years.

Between the lines: Watson told Axios that improvements in the 911 system answer rate, the introduction of a community violence prevention program , the renewal of an ordinance to protect the pay and benefits of Austin police and the graduation of cadet classes has bettered the safety situation in Austin.

The intrigue: The Axios review also found that the number of homicides in the reported cities fell by more than 17% during the first half of 2024 compared to the last period last year.

• The number of homicides in Austin dropped from 31 to 23 during the comparable periods.

What they're saying: "We still don't know why murder went down in the 1990s, so firmly explaining this trend is beyond our capability at this point," crime analyst Jeff Asher, co-founder of the New Orleans-based firm AH Datalytics , tells Axios.

• Some crime analysts have tied the decline to the end of the pandemic.
• "There's less emotional and economic stress and fewer opportunities to commit violent acts without being seen by police or neighbors," Adam Gelb, president and CEO of the Washington-based Council on Criminal Justice, tells Axios. "At the same time, the court system and social services are back up and running, including collaborations between law enforcement and community organizations specifically aimed at reducing violence."