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Axios Dallas
Texas power grid operator forecasts hot summer
By Tasha Tsiaperas,
2024-05-13
Go ahead and turn on Santana and Rob Thomas because this summer is likely going to be a hot one .
Why it matters: Texas continues to set heat records, straining the state's power grid .
Five of the state's 10 hottest summers have been recorded since 2011, setting a new standard for what's normal.
State of play: Many of the factors that contributed to the past two years of record-breaking summer heat are still in place, hinting at another above-average summer, according to a preliminary report from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, the state's power grid operator.
Ocean temperatures are still warmer than normal, and recent rains are expected to taper off, which could make it extra warm.
The big picture: The ongoing El Niño event is transitioning into La Niña, which will likely bring drought conditions back to parts of Texas, ushering in more summer heat.
"As Texas keeps having many more above normal temperature seasons, it keeps raising the bar for what is 'normal,'" writes Chris Coleman, ERCOT's supervisor of operational forecasting.
Flashback: Last year, ERCOT set 10 peak demand records and asked Texans to conserve energy eight days in August during a searing heat wave — but never had to resort to rolling blackouts.
By the numbers: April saw some extreme swings between hot and cold. April 17 reached a high of 88 in Dallas-Fort Worth, nearly 14 degrees above average, per the National Weather Service .
Just three days later, the high was 63 — 11 degrees colder than average.
Overall, April's average temperature was 3 degrees above normal.
Yes, but: April also saw more rain than typical, with nearly 6.5 inches of precipitation recorded, above the average of 3.2 inches.
The intrigue: A dry spring typically indicates a hot summer. But last year's record heat was preceded by a rainy spring, much like this year's spring.
The other top three hottest summers — 1998, 2011 and 2022 — were preceded by April-June periods that were among the top 10 driest on record.
Not-so-fun fact: North Texas has already matched a record set in 2011, the hottest Texas summer on record and the year with the most 100-degree days in Dallas-Fort Worth.
February had one of the top three hottest days for that month on record. And, one day saw a very warm low of 66 , matching a daily record set in 2011.
What's next: The full ERCOT summer forecast will be released in June.
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