In the Triangle, millennials from low-income families are faring worse than Gen Xers

Americans born to low-income families are faring worse than the last generation in the Triangle, and in most of the country's largest metro areas, a new analysis finds.

Why it matters: Intergenerational mobility — the idea that you'll do better than your parents, your children will do better than you, and so on — is core to the American dream, but is far from a guarantee.

What they did: A new analysis from the Census Bureau and Opportunity Insights , a research group at Harvard University, seeks to measure intergenerational mobility at the county level.

• Researchers compared the average household income at age 27 for Americans born to low-income families in both 1978 and 1992 to get a localized picture of changing opportunities over time.
• In the analysis, the Triangle, which is called the Raleigh metro, includes the following counties: Durham, Orange, Wake, Harnett, Person, Granville, Lee, Johnston, Chatham and Franklin.

Zoom in: In 38 of the 50 biggest U.S. metro areas, Americans born to low-income families in 1992 were doing worse at age 27 than those born in 1978 at that age.

• That includes the Triangle, where those born in 1992 made $27,700 at age 27, down 1.3% from what those born in 1978 were making at the same age ($28,100, adjusted to 2023 dollars).

Yes, but: The Triangle was far from the worst metro for intergenerational mobility. It ranks No. 14 among the 50 cities when ranked by percent change between average Gen X and Millennial household incomes. The national average percent change was a 4.2% decrease.

• Charlotte , meanwhile, saw a 5% increase between the age groups, making it No. 3 for cities that have made the most progress.
• The Triangle ranks No. 41 in terms of the average income, however, making it one of the worst cities for income levels for 1992 babies at age 27.
• In that category, Charlotte is just above Raleigh at No. 38.

Zoom out: Brownsville, Texas, had the biggest increase across generations: Those born in 1992 made $33,500 at age 27, compared to $31,400 for those born in 1978 (up 6.7%).

• Philadelphia had the biggest drop, with those born in 1992 making just $27,200 at age 27, compared to $31,200 for those born in 1978 (down 12.8%).

The bottom line: It wasn't the avocado toast . A 30-year-old from Raleigh is more likely to be in a worse financial position than someone who was about 30 in 2014.

Go deeper: The cities with the best — and worst — upward mobility