Who's ahead in AZ's US Senate race? Gallego leading a close contest, polls show

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Gallego led his Republican rival Kari Lake by 2 percentage points in a poll released Thursday by a conservative group that still sees the race as close.

The poll by the Club for Growth’s political arm comes on the heels of generally bad results for Lake’s campaign that pointed to a possible lopsided loss for her. It was taken earlier this week fully after the final piece of the reshaped Democratic presidential ticket was announced.

The poll showed Gallego leading Lake 48% to 46% with 3% of respondents choosing Green Party nominee Mike Norton and another 3% undecided. It has a 4-percentage point margin of error.

“The Arizona Senate race is neck-and-neck and one of the best pick-up possibilities for Republicans,” said David McIntosh, president of the Club for Growth Action.

Gallego and Lake are vying for the seat held by the retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., who announced in March she wouldn’t seek reelection.

Three prominent nonpartisan organizations tracking elections rate the Arizona as either tilting or leaning Democratic. The contest is one of eight competitive Senate races across the country.

Since Sinema quit the race, Gallego consistently has led in publicly available polling.

The nonpartisan FiveThirtyEight political website shows 24 polls other than the Club for Growth in the Arizona race since Sinema quit. Gallego has led in 21 of them with two ties. His average lead in those polls is nearly 5 percentage points.

In the nine polls taken in July and August, Gallego has led six times with two ties, including one from last week for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

The one poll showing Lake ahead, by 1 point, was conducted by her campaign.

Four of those nine polls showed Gallego leading by 5 points or more.

Gallego’s lead has shifted over time and some of that polling has come from pollsters that work for Democrats or who support him.

But it has also included polls from Republican friendly firms, too.

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Who's ahead in AZ's US Senate race? Gallego leading a close contest, polls show