Two contested primaries in Alaska’s state legislative elections next week

Welcome to the Wednesday, August 14, 2024 Brew.

Here’s what’s in store for you as you start your day:

1. Alaska to hold top-four primaries for second year since voters approved the system in 2020, while also deciding on ballot measure to abolish the system
2. President Biden has appointed 205 federal judges through Aug. 1 of his fourth year
3. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan (R) faces primary challenger Eddie Speir (R) in Republican primary for Florida’s 16th Congressional District

Alaska to hold top-four primaries for second year since voters approved the system in 2020, while also deciding on ballot measure to abolish the system

Continuing our coverage of statewide primaries, today we dive into elections in Alaska, one of three states holding primaries on Aug. 20, along with Florida and Wyoming. Alaska is holding primaries for congressional (U.S. House) and state legislative (House and Senate) offices.

Why it matters at the national level

In the U.S. House, Republicans currently have a 220-212 majority with three vacancies. Voters will elect one candidate to serve in the U.S. House from the state’s at-large U.S. House district. Incumbent U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola (D) is running for re-election.

Twelve candidates are running for Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District, including two Democrats, four Republicans, two non-major party candidates, three nonpartisan candidates, and one undeclared candidate. That is the second-highest number of congressional candidates in the last 10 years.

This is the second year Alaska will use a top-four primary system. In a top-four primary, candidates run in a single primary election, regardless of party affiliation.

State Legislature

In the Alaska Legislature, 50 seats–including all 40 House seats and 10 Senate seats–are up for election this year. Alaska is one of 10 states with a divided government. While Republicans hold numerical majorities in both legislative chambers, multipartisan governing coalitions control both the House and the Senate. As of Aug. 12, there are 23 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments where neither party holds trifecta control.

Alaska has two contested top-four state legislative primaries on Aug. 20. A contested primary is one in which at least one candidate will not advance to the general election – in Alaska’s case, that means a primary with at least five candidates running for the same office.

• The number of contested state legislative primaries fell in 2022 after the implementation of the top-four primary system.
• Between 2010 and 2020, before the state began holding top-four primaries, there was an average of 21.7 contested primaries.
• Between 2010 and 2020, an average of 20.8% of legislative primaries were contested.

There are 116 candidates running, including 32 Democrats, 60 Republicans, 12 minor-party candidates, and 12 independent or non-partisan candidates.

• Between 2010 and 2022, an average of 117.2 candidates ran.

Forty-three incumbents are running for re-election, and only one is contested in the primary. That amounts to 2.3% of all running incumbents. In 2020, no incumbents had contested primaries. Before Alaska started holding top-four state legislative primaries, an average of 25.1% of returning incumbents had contested primaries between 2010 and 2022.

• Seven incumbents did not seek re-election this year: one Democrat, five Republicans, and one independent.
• An average of 8.7 incumbents retired between 2010 and 2022.

Other items on the Alaska ballot in November

Two of the Alaska Supreme Court’s five justices are running in retention elections: Dario Borghesan and Jennifer S. Henderson. If retained, they will serve 10-year terms. Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) appointed both justices.

• As of March 2023, a Republican governor appointed four judges on the court, and an Independent governor appointed one judge.
• No Alaskan justice has lost a retention race since 1962.

Alaska voters will also decide on two ballot measures. One is an initiative that would repeal open top-four primaries and ranked-choice voting, which were established in 2020 with the approval of Ballot Measure 2. The other is an initiative that would raise the state minimum wage and enact a paid sick leave law.

Alaska is one of five states, along with Idaho, Missouri, Nevada, and Oregon, that will decide on a ballot measure related to ranked-choice voting this year. Measures are also pending in Arizona and Montana. Alaska is also one of four states, along with Arizona, California, and Massachusetts, that will decide on minimum wage measures this year. Signatures have also been filed for initiatives in Missouri and Oklahoma.

President Biden has appointed 205 federal judges through Aug. 1 of his fourth year

Ballotpedia tracks the number of federal judges each president appoints, provides historical comparisons of presidential appointments, and compares appointments over time by president and court types. Let’s take a look at how President Joe Biden’s (D) judicial appointments compare to his predecessors at this point in their terms in office.

As of Aug. 1, the U.S. Senate has confirmed 205 of Biden’s Article III judicial appointments. Article III judges include those on the U.S. Supreme Court, U.S. courts of appeal, U.S. district courts, and the Court of International Trade.

Biden’s 205 Article III judicial appointments are the most appointments a president has made through this point of a term since President Ronald Reagan (R). Presidents Bill Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R) each had the second most appointments at this point in their terms, with 202 each.

The chart below shows the number of Article III judicial appointments each president since Reagan made through Aug. 1 of their fourth year in office. Nominations are categorized based on the court to which the president made the appointment.

Previous presidents appointed an average of 182 federal judges through Aug. 1 of their fourth year in office. By August of his fourth year, Reagan had the fewest confirmations during that span (148).

The median number of Supreme Court justices appointed at this point is two.

• Two presidents (Reagan and Biden) made one appointment.
• Four presidents—George H.W. Bush (R), Bill Clinton (D), Barack Obama (D), and Trump—made two.
• President George W. Bush (R) did not appoint any Supreme Court justices by this point in his presidency.

The median number of U.S. Court of Appeals appointees is 35.

• Trump had the most appointees with 53.
• Reagan appointed the fewest with 27.

The median number of U.S. District Court appointees is 145.

• Clinton had the most appointees with 168.
• Reagan appointed the fewest with 117.

According to U.S. Courts, there are 46 current Article III vacancies in the federal judiciary of 870 total Article III judgeships.

There are five key steps in the vacancy process: a presidential nomination, a U.S. Senate committee hearing, a U.S. Senate committee vote to report the nominee to the full Senate, a U.S. Senate confirmation vote, and a confirmed nominee taking their judicial oath and receiving their judicial commission.

• There are seven Article III nominees awaiting a hearing with the Senate Judiciary Committee.
• There are five Article III nominees awaiting a committee vote in the Senate Judiciary Committee.
• There are 23 Article III nominees awaiting a confirmation vote in the full U.S. Senate.

The map below details the percentage of vacant seats in each federal district court. Ballotpedia considers a vacancy to be filled once the confirmed nominee has received commission.

To learn more about federal judges Biden has nominated during his presidency, click here.

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan faces (R)primary challenger Eddie Speir (R) in Republican primary for Florida’s 16th Congressional District election

Throughout the year, we’re bringing you coverage of the most compelling elections—the battlegrounds we expect to have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in governments or to be particularly competitive. You can catch our previous coverage of other battleground races here.

Today, we’re looking at the Aug. 20 Republican primary for Florida’s 16th Congressional District between incumbent U.S. Rep Vern Buchanan (R) and Eddie Speir (R).

Buchanan’s experience and platform

Buchanan was first elected to the U.S. House in 2006. He defeated his two most recent primary challengers, James Satcher (R) in 2016 and Martin Hyde (R) in 2022, by 61 and 72 percentage points, respectively.

In the 118th Congress, Buchanan was Vice Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee and chaired its Health Subcommittee. Buchanan highlighted these committee positions in the campaign and said he would “continue to be a strong advocate for protecting and strengthening Medicare for both today’s seniors and future generations.” His campaign site says: “Balancing the budget is an urgent priority as the U.S. national debt has reached $31 trillion and continues to grow.”

Trump endorsed Buchanan. Buchanan also received several local endorsements from Manatee County Sheriff Rick Wells and Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister.

Speir’s experience and platform

Speir founded and sold a financial software company and also founded a private Christian school. In January 2023, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appointed Speir to the New College of Florida Board of Trustees, but the Florida Senate did not confirm the appointment.

Speir completed Ballotpedia’s Candidate Connection survey. In it, Speir described himself as an America First candidate, a term often associated with Trump’s platform and candidates who say they support Trump’s agenda. Speir said, “America continues to lead the way for the rest of the world. Yet, our national sovereignty has come under attack. The entrenched establishment of career politicians have exposed our country to uncontrolled illegal immigration and foreign policies contrary to the well-being and prosperity of this nation. We must correct this course and put American priorities first and continue the trail-blazing path of freedom and prosperity.” Click here to read Speir’s complete responses to the survey.

The Republican Liberty Caucus endorsed Speir.

The Tampa Bay Times called Speir’s run “a challenge from the right.” Speir said, “[W]e have witnessed a shocking erosion of our individual rights and liberties. Where has Vern Buchanan been?” and called Buchanan “a statesman for the status quo.” Buchanan said, “We’ve built up a good reputation, a good name, and we’ve done a good job for a long time. I think you’ll see that at the ballot box.” Buchanan campaign manager Max Goodman said, “Even the most rabid Republicans are turned off by Speir.”

Florida’s 16th Congressional District is a Solid/Safe Republican District

As of Aug. 6, The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales, and Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball all rated the general election as Solid/Safe Republican. The last Democrat to represent the district was Tim Mahoney (D) in 2006.

Campaign finance

The chart below shows how much cash each candidate has raised, spent, and has on hand based on second-quarter reports filed with the Federal Election Commission.