Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles odds, picks and predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays (50-57) and Baltimore Orioles (63-44) tangle Tuesday as they continue a 4-game AL East series in Charm City. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 4-4

Toronto downed the Orioles 8-4 in the nightcap of a Monday twin bill (Baltimore won the opener 11-5). Over their last 5 games, the Blue Jays have scored 6.60 runs per contest while notching a robust .922 OPS.

Baltimore pitching continues to have mid-summer struggles at home. Since June 29, the Orioles are 4-9 alongside the B&O Warehouse. Over that stretch, Baltimore has registered a 5.85 ERA.

Blue Jays at Orioles projected starters

RHP Chris Bassitt vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Bassitt (8-9, 3.78 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 119 IP.

• Last outing: Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 13-0 loss vs. Tampa Bay Rays Thursday
• Career vs. Orioles: 3-2, 4.79 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 38 H, 10 BB, 39 K in 6 starts

Burnes (10-4, 2.45 ERA) is making his 22nd start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 132 IP.

• Last outing: No-decision, 7.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-6 win at Miami Marlins Thursday
• Career vs. Blue Jays: 2-0, 2.18 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 15 H, 5 BB, 16 K in 3 starts
• Squaring off against the Blue Jays for a 3rd time this season: allowed just 2 ER across 13 IP over the 1st 2 meetings
• Has 2.03 ERA for the season at Camden Yards (1.50 ERA last 36 IP)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Blue Jays at Orioles odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:23 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Blue Jays +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Orioles -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-115) | Orioles -1.5 (-105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Blue Jays at Orioles picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 6, Blue Jays 4

Current Baltimore bats own an aggregate 1.083 OPS against Bassitt, per ESPN. With the way Burnes has pitched against Toronto this season and the way he’s pitched at Camden, the Orioles are a slight lean here. But so is a higher-than-projected total score.

So, PASS on the ML and look to get the home nine by with a cushion.

Figure Toronto’s recent surge with the bats as being accompanied by some fortunate rates around the margins. Over the last week, the Blue Jays have gotten by with a .318 batting average on balls in play.

Burnes gets a lot of ground balls, and Toronto scuffles against ground-ball pitchers. Look for the Orioles to get out in front and file a win by 2-plus in this Tuesday battle of the birds.

FanDuel Sportsbook has a better leverage tag here. BACK BALTIMORE -1.5 (+104).

The Over has cashed in 7 straight Toronto games and in 9 of its last 10 contests on the road. And the Over is 8-for-8 in Baltimore’s last 8 games.

The Over is 5-1 across the last 4 Toronto-Baltimore games. Rain is in the weather forecast, but so is some heat, humidity and an outward breeze. With the expected-ERA numbers for both starters being higher than their surface numbers, the OVER 8.5 (-110) is the value play.

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