Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

The Baltimore Orioles (65-45) and the Cleveland Guardians (66-42) play the 2nd contest of a 4-game series Friday. First pitch from Progressive Field is at 6:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Orioles vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 3-1

The Guardians rolled up an impressive 10-3 win in the series opener Thursday behind RHP Ben Lively . Cleveland produced 11 hits, with 4 players posting 2 or more knocks. Newcomer OF Lane Thomas , a deadline acquisition, went 2-for-4 with a pair of doubles, a walk and 2 runs scored.

The Orioles saw LHP Trevor Rogers get pounded in the opener, allowing 5 ER, 6 H and 3 BB across 4 1/3 IP in his team debut on Friday.

The 10 runs allowed by the O’s was the most since a 19-8 loss on the road against the Oakland Athletics. The Over (9) cashed Thursday, and the total has now went high at a 10-1 pace in the past 11 games for Baltimore, while going 13-2 in the past 15 outings since July 14, the final game prior to the All-Star break.

Orioles at Guardians projected starters

RHP Dean Kremer vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Kremer (4-7, 4.20 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 75 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 R (1 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 9-4 home setback vs. San Diego Padres last Saturday
• 2024 road splits: 3-3, 3.05 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 0.97 WHIP, .174 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 13 BB, 37 K in 7 starts
• Career vs. Guardians: 0-2, 6.23 ERA (13 IP, 9 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 5.5 K/9 in 3 starts

Carrasco (3-9, 5.68 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 95 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 8-0 setback at Philadelphia Phillies last Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 2-4, 5.36 ERA (42 IP, 25 ER), 1.45 WHIP, .307 OBA, 11 BB, 38 K in 8 starts
• 2024 vs. Orioles: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 3 K in 4-2 road loss June 26
• Career vs. Orioles: 4-2, 2.23 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 7 starts (8 appearances)

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Orioles at Guardians odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:48 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML) : Orioles -122 (bet $122 to win $100) | Guardians +104 (bet $100 to win $104)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS) : Orioles -1.5 (+128) | Guardians +1.5 (-154)
• Over/Under (O/U) : 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Orioles at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Orioles 6, Guardians 5

Moneyline

The ORIOLES (-122) are worth a look as they look to avenge Thursday’s beatdown with the southpaw Rogers.

The Guardians (+104) have struggled in games which Carrasco has started, going 0-3 in his past 3 outings. Cleveland has been outscored 18-2 in those 3 starts. Cookie took a no-decision in a 4-2 loss in Baltimore on June 26, too.

Back the O’s, as they get the rebound win.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more on the conservative side, consider the GUARDIANS +1.5 (-154) catching the run and a half at home.

The Guardians are 3-1 in 4 meetings against the Orioles this season, but that only setback was a game Carrasco started, so be careful.

Over/Under

OVER 9 (- 115 ) might be the best play on the board.

The Under might be 5-3 in the past 8 games for the Guardians at home. However, the total has gone high in 13 of the past 15 games for the Orioles.

With these 2 sub-.500 pitchers on the bump, the offenses should be able to pile up the runs.

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