15 MLB Pitching Prospects With Elite Individual Pitches

Measuring the value of individual pitches has become a bigger and bigger part of player evaluation. While scouts have long graded each pitch they see, there are other elements at play that the naked eye can’t see. When limited to single looks on players, scouts can only understand how a given pitch plays on any given day.

They might see an especially good day or an especially bad day. But seeing how a pitch performs over the course of a longer sample size is more valuable. To do that, we need data to measure more accurately. Luckily, access to both Statcast data and overall per-pitch performance numbers has become more readily available in the industry.

Our scouting reports factor in movement, velocity and our internal Stuff+ metric. But generating swings and misses is still king. It can provide insight into elements that might be missed when looking at just movement. As the old adage says “what are the hitters telling you?”

Today, we’ll examine 15 pitches that are performing at elite rates in the minor leagues, by looking at swinging strike rate at an individual pitch level.

FOUR-SEAM FASTBALLS

This groups represents the top five four-seam fastballs in swinging strike rate in the minor leagues this season. Our minimum sample to be eligible for this group is a minimum of 300 pitches (per pitch type) this season. One of the clear strings tying all five of these pitches together is flatter planes of approach. Vertical approach angle measures how flat or steep a pitch is and the lower the number, the flatter the pitch. Anything in the mid-negative fours or below is considered flat. All five of these pitches have flat planes of approach.

Zach Franklin is a righthanded reliever in the White Sox system with a low-three quarters, almost sidearm slot, creating a difficult plane of approach for hitters to get flush barrel contact against. He has worked exclusively out of the Winston-Salem bullpen this season and has generated a ton of whiffs against his fastball. The pitch matches above-average vertical break from a 69.7 inch release height with a high rate of spin efficiency. These elements combined with mid-90s velocity allow the pitch to really play up.

The Rays recently acquired RHP Ty Johnson from the Cubs in the Isaac Paredes deal. Johnson has worked primarily as a starter since the Cubs nabbed him out of Ball State in the 15th round of the 2023 draft. He has been limited to three or four innings per appearance this year, though, hinting at a likely future in the pen. The 6-foot-6 righty is tall but delivers the ball from a low-three quarters slot. This creates a deceptive plane to the plate for his fastball. His release height is lower at 67.2 inches sitting 93-95 mph with high spin rates between 2500-2600 rpm on average. His raw induced vertical break number isn’t impressive, but from his slot with high spin and 6.5 feet of extension he has other deceptive elements that allow his fastball to play as plus.

Red Sox righty Max Carlson is the most unusual name on the list. A starter in college at North Carolina, Carlson was moved to a full-time reliver role as a professional. He has experienced lots of success early on beating up on Low-A competition. Carlson only sits 91-92 mph but has over seven feet of extension, above-average vertical break and armside run, allowing his fastball to play above its below-average velocity. It’s a classic three quarters arm slot, but the release and plane on the pitch play up due to his combination of extension and spin efficiency.

Rockies righty Chase Dollander is the highest-rated pitcher and only true starter of the group. He was the third college starter drafted in 2023 behind Pirates superstar Paul Skenes and Reds righty Rhett Lowder. Dollander was known for his outlier fastball traits while at Tennessee, but the pitch backed up during his draft spring, leading to below-average results. In 2024, Dollander’s fastball is back in a big way. You could argue it’s among the best fastballs in the minor leagues.

It sits 96-97 mph across a 900+ pitch sample this season with a standout swinging strike rate. Dollander has average induced vertical break numbers averaging around 16 to 17 inches. While on the surface the IVB numbers look pedestrian, his 66 inch release height is outlier and that allows his IVB to actually play up to above-average. These elements create a outlier vertical approach angle of 4.0 which puts him into a very exclusive buckets of fastballs.

The final arm is Jacob Webb , a low slot arm with surprising power in the Red Sox system. He generates a lower release height on his fastball. A relief-only prospect, Webb is extremely deceptive. He has a low release height of 67 inches with over seven feet of extension. Webb’s combination of velocity, slot and vertical break allow the pitch to generate whiffs and a heavy rate of chases. The deceptive elements of Webb’s release allow his fastball to play as plus despite more average velocity.

SLIDERS

After the year of the sweeper back in 2022, the gyro slider has taken over as the en vogue slider shape of the moment. All five sliders listed fall squarely into the gyro slider category, with Cerantola and Diaz showing the most true gyro of the group. For those unfamiliar, gyro sliders move like a tight-spiraled football or bullet spin.

Royals righthander Eric Cerantola has been known for his spin prowess dating back to his time at Mississippi State. Stuff has never been an issue for Cernatola. Instead, he has struggled to consistently throw strikes, something that still plagues his profile. Even so, his slider is something to behold. A mid-80s pure gyroball, Cerantola dominates with his slider, generating whiffs and chases while finding the zone regularly with the pitch. While the totality of Cerantola’s profile has it’s warts, theres no denying his ability to drive whiffs against his slider.

The Rangers helped Emiliano Teodo take a huge step forward last season by remaking his fastball. His slider, on the other hand, is a standout pitch that didn’t need much tweaking. It performs at an elite level because of how it plays against his two-seam style of fastball. Teodo’s tight upper-80s gyro ball has generated whiffs and chases at a high rate despite only so-so command of the pitch. It’s a filthy pitch and its elite power matches well with his upper-90 two-seamer, presenting a one-two punch of pitches with power and movement.

The Brewers’ K.C. Hunt was signed as nondrafted free agent in 2023. Hunt had been used almost exclusively as a reliever in both college at Mississippi State and early in his professional career. On June 6 Hunt was deployed as a starter for the first time as a professional. In that start Hunt tossed five shutout innings allowing three hits and a walk. Over the next two months Hunt stayed in the rotation with High-A Wisconsin and continued to post, allowing seven runs over 40.1 innings while compiling 51 strikeouts to 11 walks. Hunt’s slider sits 85-86 mph with gyro spin and high spin rates that average between 2600-2700 rpm. The pitch misses bats by generating a high rate of chase swings. He combines control and a tight gyro shape with above-average velocity. The pitch has late bite and is difficult to hit whether in or out of the zone.

The Rangers recently acquired Walter Pennington at the deadline. He signed with the Royals as a nondrafted free agent out of the Colorado School of Mines in 2020. A slider-first pitcher, Pennington has ridden the quality of the pitch to the majors in 2024 despite his low-90s fastball grading out as a 30 grade MLB pitch. The results speak for themselves. He still generates plenty of ugly swing-and-miss despite throwing his slider more than 50% of the time. Pennington gets a high chase rate and generates whiffs in-zone. While Pennington’s slider lacks the same power as other sliders on the list, his advanced command generates excellent results.

Yilber Diaz’s time in the D-backs rotation has produced middling results this season. He has dominated in the minors, though, in large part due to his slider quality. Diaz throws a tight mid-80s gyro slider with advanced command. He throws the pitch in and out of the zone effectively, but thrives when picking his spots on the fringes of the zone. Diaz generates heavy spin on the pitch and it plays perfectly off his mid-to-high-90s fastball. Diaz’s slider is the key to his arsenal. It has produced excellent results this season, and is likely key to any long-term major league success.

CHANGEUPS

Surprisingly, it’s all righthanded changeups that rank the highest per swinging strike rate. Even more fun they have varying shapes. Hurston Waldrep is the only pitcher who throws a true splitter. Jackson Nezuh’s changeup has some splitter tendencies ,but not nearly the same amount of tumble Waldrep’s does. While Luis Gastelum generates the most drop with a negative IVB number and the most armside run of any changeup on this list. Of all the pitch types, changeups are dependent on several other factors outside of just movement, including how the pitch tunnels off the fastball or how deceptive the release is off of other pitches.

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