St. Louis on track for a 10-year low in homicides

St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones is touting an ongoing drop in homicides , with the city being on track for fewer than 160 in 2024, the lowest number in 10 years.

Data released by her office Thursday showed the city with 106 homicides through Aug. 31. That’s a slight drop from 109 the year before and a decrease of more than 22% compared to the same time period in 2022. That year’s totals, however, were up from 2021 year-to-date numbers.

“Every life lost to gun violence is one too many, and we have to keep working to bring these numbers down further,” Jones said in a statement.

Though the mayor credits investments in efforts like the Office of Violence Prevention, there are a lot of factors at play, said Jeff Asher, the cofounder of AH Datalytics.

“If you told me what goes into an award-winning chocolate cake, I still couldn’t bake the cake, because I wouldn’t know exactly which ingredient, in what quantity, went to what steps of the recipe,” he said.

While most neighborhoods in the city saw homicides decline, there were several with large increases. In Downtown West, nine people have been killed so far compared to one last year, an increase of 800%.

There have also been several high-profile shootings, which “cause some downtown residents to think otherwise when people say crime is down,” said Dan Pistor, chair of the Downtown Neighborhood Association.

Pistor said the city has taken steps to address specific problem areas like the parks near City Hall and two notorious gas stations — the Shell at 721 N. Tucker Blvd. and the BP at 1401 Chouteau Ave. But he said more needs to be done to address problems at the Civic Center MetroLink station and at various establishments with liquor licenses.

The city’s homicide decline is running behind the national average, according to the Real Time Crime Index — a database of crime statistics from 300 large U.S. cities. Asher, the index’s co-founder, said numbers through June, the latest available from the FBI, showed homicides down 16%.

Other crime in St. Louis decreased as well last month, according to figures released Thursday. Compared to August 2023, the city saw a drop of 2.2% in violent crimes and 12.6% in property crime in August of this year.

Jones is running for reelection in 2025. She faces two challengers so far — 8th Ward Alderwoman Cara Spencer and Recorder of Deeds Michael Butler.