Fever vs. Liberty prediction: WNBA odds, picks, best bets

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Heading into Saturday’s final regular-season matchup between the Liberty and Fever, Indiana certainly won’t complain about not facing New York again after losing the three previous meetings this year by an average of 27.7 points.

But it hasn’t only been the Liberty who have given Caitlin Clark and the Fever fits.

Indiana has struggled against most of the WNBA’s better teams, going 0-9 straight up and 2-7 against the spread versus teams with a .530 win percentage or higher.

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Though Clark has brought plenty of attention to the Fever, Indiana has performed worse on both ends of the floor.

Year over year, the Fever’s offensive rating has dropped from 101.8 to 99.8 and their defensive rating has gone from 106.3 to 108.9.

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While it has been a steep learning curve for Clark in her rookie season, Indiana hasn’t exactly pushed the right buttons in building a team around her.

The Fever are in the midst of a playoff push, but that likely will take a step backward on Saturday in a bad matchup where New York’s strengths line up with Indiana’s weaknesses.

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Indiana ranks second-to-last in opponent fast break points (11.9 allowed per game), and it often picks up cheap fouls when out of position on defense.

Fever opponents take the second-most free throw attempts (21.2), making 17.3 per game.

In contrast, New York allows the fewest free throw attempts (15.4) and makes (11.7).

These easier scoring opportunities in transition and from the free throw line tend to add up quickly, giving Indiana a massive disadvantage against the better teams.

The play : Liberty -8 alternate line (-113, BetRivers).

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