Nine innings with the Red Sox, starting with the reality of the playoff pursuit

The Red Sox, as feisty as they are, most likely aren’t making the playoffs.

Playing nine innings while starting to wonder if Triston Casas is as comfortable in Worcester as Manny Ramirez was once upon a time during a prolonged rehab assignment in Pawtucket …

1. It’s OK to acknowledge it. The Red Sox, as feisty as they are, most likely aren’t making the playoffs. At the most optimistic, the playoff pursuit remains an uphill climb. As of Wednesday afternoon, Baseball-Reference had their probability of making the playoffs at 45.9 percent, while Fangraphs had it at 42.3, and that was coming off victories in the first two of a three-game set with the Rangers, which boosted their odds by a few percentage points. But that’s OK. Go ahead and acknowledge it. Because while they may not get satisfaction of a playoff berth, what chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and the Red Sox have now is clarity. This season has taught us exactly what has to happen – and how Breslow must proceed — for the Red Sox to be perennial playoff contenders/participants again.

2. Most of you probably just yelled in unison, “Spend some freakin’ money on established talent for once!” didn’t you? Yeah, that certainly would be welcome, and fool that I am, I’m cautiously optimistic that it will happen now that the Red Sox have … yes, clarity. Let me explain. The last two seasons felt like the franchise was stuck in an inescapable haze. Chaim Bloom built up the farm system, and he mixed in some truly crafty trades and bargain free-agent signings with some perplexing ones, but there were so many question marks all over the roster that it was virtually impossible to project a time when the Red Sox would be true contenders again. Even entering this season, it was unclear what their path was, because everything but the 2024 Portland Sea Dogs lineup appeared destined to be an uninspiring mess.

3. What’s clear now is this: the Red Sox must acquire high-end, trustworthy starting pitching, whether via free agency (Breslow is very familiar with Corbin Burnes from their NL Central days) or, more likely, by trading from their surplus of quality position players to bolster the staff. The most important development for the Red Sox season is … well, their development. Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela, to varying degrees, all have emerged as players who can be envisioned as important parts of the next excellent Red Sox team. Connor Wong broke through as a capable, productive starting catcher. David Hamilton provides speed and versatility. And you may have heard about the trio of premier prospects that just relocated from Portland to Worcester. The Red Sox have pieces now.

4. They have some keepers in the rotation, too. Tanner Houck made the All-Star team, and should be more durable next year. Too many hitters have looked like 2003 Barry Bonds against Kutter Crawford recently, but he can be penciled in as a No. 4. Brayan Bello is an enigma who can be his own worst enemy, but the talent and determination are in place to succeed. Everything would fall into place nicely if Breslow can swing a deal for a durable front-of-the-rotation starter, and perhaps one more innings-eater for the back end. The price will be steep. He might have to pull off a trade that hurts to make. But the task could not be clearer. The Sox need starting pitching, and this offseason will be the time to pay for it.

5. The annual Baseball America Prospect Handbook has always done this entertaining thing where it projects a team’s big-league lineup three years down the road. The unintentional subtext often ends up being that a lot of highly regarded prospects don’t come close to fulfilling their loftiest projections. I suppose that’s probably worth keeping in mind as the Red Sox don’t exactly shy away from promoting Marcelo Mayer, Kyle Teel, and Roman Anthony as a trio of surefire future All-Stars.

6. Case in point: I pulled the 2001 Handbook off a shelf in my home office, and this was its projected 2004 Red Sox lineup. C – Jason Varitek. 1B – Juan Diaz. 2B – Freddy Sanchez. SS – Nomar Garciaparra. 3B – Tony Blanco. OF – Manny Ramirez, Carl Everett, Trot Nixon. DH – Dernell Stenson. And the starting rotation? Pedro Martinez, Brad Baker, Tomo Ohka, Sun-Woo Kim, and Casey Fossum. I don’t know, I think I like the actual 2004 roster a little better, don’t you?

7. Still, thinking about what, oh, the 2025 Red Sox lineup could be if the kids continue to master every challenge is awfully enticing. How does this look? C – Teel/Wong. 1B – Triston Casas. 2B – Trevor Story/Vaughn Grissom (hey, I’m still a believer). SS – Mayer. 3B – Rafael Devers. OF – Duran, Rafaela, Anthony. DH – Abreu, Masataka Yoshida, or Juan Soto. (Just seeing if you were still paying attention there.)

8. I’ll admit, I wasn’t quite sure how to interpret Red Sox’ fans loud cheers for Jarren Duran Wednesday night upon his return from a two-game suspension for yelling a reprehensible word at a heckler. Hopefully the cheers meant, “You have seemed genuinely contrite, and we appreciate that you’ve been open about your mental health struggles” rather than any kind of suggestion that he shouldn’t have been punished in the first place. Duran did seem truly remorseful, but something my mom always said keeps popping into mind. It would be quite the unlucky coincidence that you got caught doing something the first time you did it.

9. I can’t be alone here. This must happen to some of you old-school Globe readers too. Every time I hear AL Most Valuable Player candidate Bobby Witt Jr.’s name, I flash back to when his dad was referred to as “Canton’s Bobby Witt” upon pretty much every reference in the Globe during his long career. As far as I’m concerned, Canton gets to claim Junior as well.