San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

The Boston Red Sox (43-37) welcome the San Diego Padres (44-41) to Fenway Park Friday for the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Padres vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Boston won 2-1 in 2023

The Red Sox, who are 19-21 at home this season, split a 2-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays, closing with a 9-4 home loss on Tuesday. It has been on fire as of late, winning 8 of its last 10 games and is 5-2 in its last 7 at home. The Red Sox are 16-12 against NL teams this season.

The Padres are 20-19 away and are 1 of just 11 teams with a road record over .500. San Diego has won 3 straight games and 7 of its last 8. It is coming off an 8-5 victory Wednesday over the Washington Nationals to complete a 3-game sweep. San Diego is 42-42 against the spread (ATS).

Padres at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Randy Vasquez vs. RHP Nick Pivetta

Vasquez (2-4, 5.10 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.68 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 5.9 K/9 in 47 2/3 IP.

• Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-4 home win over the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
• 2024 road splits: 1-2, 6.85 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.88 WHIP, 6 HR, 6.9 K/9 in 5 starts
• Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 4.91 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 1. WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 1 start

Pivetta (4-4, 4.06 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 57 2/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 4-3 road win over the Cincinnati Reds Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 1-2, 4.62 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 3 HR, 11.7 K/9 in 5 starts
• Career vs. Padres: 0-3, 5.57 ERA (21 IP, 13 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 14.1 K/9 in 5 appearances (3 starts)

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Padres at Red Sox odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:46 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +134 (bet $100 to win $134) | Red Sox -158 (bet $158 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-154) | Red Sox -1.5 (+128)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Padres at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Red Sox 6, Padres 4

BET RED SOX (-158).

The Red Sox have been on fire as of late and have won 4 straight starts by Pivetta and have won 6 of his last 8 starts. Boston is 5-3 in its last 8 home games and won 2 of 3 in Fenway against the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies among its last 3 home series.

While the Padres have won 7 of their last 8 games, they are just 1-9 in their last 10 road games. San Diego is 3-7 in Vasquez’s starts this season as well. Considering those trends, despite the juice, take RED SOX (-158).

PASS.

The Padres have strung together wins as of late, so they should be able to keep this game close. Despite consistently winning when Pivetta starts, Boston has won by a single run in 3 of the team’s 7 victories with him on the mound.

Avoid the moneyline and back the suggested moneyline play.

BET OVER 9.5 (-108).

The Padres have gone Over in 7 straight games and have scored at least 7 runs in 3 straight games. They are 45-38-1 O/U on the season and have gone Over in Vasquez’s last 2 starts.

The Red Sox have gone Over in 3 straight and are 7-3 O/U in their last 10. Boston has scored at least 4 in 9 of its last 10 and at least 7 in 6 of those. Considering those trends, back OVER 9.5 (-108).

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