Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

The Toronto Blue Jays (51-59) and New York Yankees (65-46) meet for the middle contest of a 3-game AL East series Saturday afternoon. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is slated for 1:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Blue Jays vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Blue Jays lead 6-5

Toronto clobbered Yankee starter RHP Marcus Stroman and then hung on to win 8-5 in Friday’s series opener. The Blue Jays have scored 8 or more runs in their last 3 wins against New York.

Friday’s loss snapped a 5-game win streak for the Yankees. New York has failed to capitalize in leveraging much of a home-field advantage this season. Friday’s loss marked the Yanks’ 3rd in a row in the Bronx, and New York is just 27-24 in Yankee Stadium.

Blue Jays at Yankees projected starters

RHP Jose Berrios vs. LHP Carlos Rodon

Berrios (9-8, 3.93 ERA) is tabbed for his 23rd start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 through 130 2/3 innings.

• Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 7-3 home victory vs. Texas Rangers Sunday
• Career vs. Yankees (regular season): 4-7, 4.96 ERA (74 1/3 IP, 41 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 13 starts
• Had bounceback in his last start after clocking 7.78 ERA over his previous 4 efforts

Rodon (11-7, 4.34 ERA) is making his 23rd start. He owns a 1.22 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 120 1/3 innings.

• Last outing: Win, 6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 8-2 win at Boston Red Sox Sunday
• Career vs. Blue Jays: 1-2, 5.01 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.49 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 6 starts
• Has been clobbered twice by Blue Jays this season (combined 9 IP, 11 runs allowed on 1.058 OPS)

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Blue Jays at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline: Blue Jays +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Yankees -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Blue Jays +1.5 (-125) | Yankees -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Blue Jays at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 7, Blue Jays 5

The Jays entered this series 15 games under .500 (33-48) vs. teams playing .500-or-better baseball. Peg New York as a lean but a better actionable play on the run line.

PASS.

Berrios has pitched through the good fortune of a .257 batting average on balls in play, and his season ERA figures to be artificially tamped down. Sans his last start, the Toronto right-hander had not been pitching well of late, and hard contact had been the primary culprit. Berrios has also pitched much better north of the border where he owns an ERA of 2.99 (his road ERA heading into Saturday is 2 runs higher).

Led by OF Aaron Judge‘s 1.290 OPS against the Blue Jays hurler, current Yankee bats own an aggregate .842 OPS against Berrios per ESPN.

Left-handers swing Toronto around to the lesser side of its platoon splits (.660 OPS vs. southpaws).

FanDuel Sportsbook offers more leverage here. BACK THE YANKEES -1.5 (+112).

The Over has cashed in 9 of Toronto’s last 10 games and in 8 straight on the New York side. The last 7 Blue Jays-Yankees games in the Bronx have also hit the Over.

With 2 shaky bullpens and some warm, humid, breeze-blowing-out weather in the forecast, the OVER 9 (-115) is the value play.

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