North Carolina now a toss-up between Harris and Trump, says new election forecast

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) — If it feels like there’s suddenly more attention on the state of North Carolina, you’re right. It started when President Joe Biden dropped out of the race. Then the focus on our state gained momentum as Vice President Kamala Harris started fairing better in the polls than her boss. The polls narrowed the gap with former president Donald Trump.

A new forecast of the presidential race conducted by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ turns North Carolina from lean Republican to toss-up. The formula is based on polling data, partisan breakdown, demographics, and voting history.

“The whole national environment has moved to the Democrats,” said Drew McCoy with Decision Desk HQ. “You combine that with the state specific polling moving towards Harris in North Carolina. That’s why you start to see a bit of a shift towards Democrats in North Carolina.”

The candidates seem to be paying attention. Kamala Harris was in Raleigh the Friday before the Democratic National Convention and Donald Trump was in the state twice within a two week period.

“Putting a candidate in a state and doing some rallies, doing events is a big commitment,” McCoy said. “You can sort of see what campaigns really care about by following their schedule. The biggest thing that they have is to put their candidates someplace. If they’re expanding that kind of source, that tells you what they think is important.”

After redistricting, all but one of North Carolina’s 14 congressional races are considered all but decided. The first district includes a large geographic section of the state’s northeastern counties. The race between Democratic incumbent Don Davis and Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout is now forecast as lean Democrat.

McCoy said there’s not a lot of polling for House races, so they look at other data as well. “It’s very much influenced by things like finance, fundraising, and the environment,” he said. “The environment definitely has improved for Democrats, but it’s still going to be a very close race and probably an uphill fight for Davis to hold on to his seat.”

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