Maryland voters prefer Alsobrooks over Hogan for U.S. Senate in new Gonzales Poll

BALTIMORE -- Maryland voters questioned in the new Gonzales Poll prefer Democrat Angela Alsobrooks over Republican Larry Hogan, the state's former governor, as the next U.S. Senator.

A total of 820 registered voters in Maryland who indicated they are likely to vote in the 2024 general election were queried for the poll by live telephone interviews, utilizing both landline and cellphone numbers between August 24 and August 30.

A cross-section of interviews was conducted throughout the state, reflecting Maryland's general election voting patterns, the pollster said.

The Gonzales Poll stated that "the margin of error, per accepted statistical standards, is a range of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points and if the entire population was surveyed, there is a 95% probability that the true numbers would fall within this range."

Those voters were also asked about the presidential election and their support for Maryland Gov. Wes Moore .

What the poll reveals

Among the Maryland voters polled, 46% support Alsobrooks and 41% are in favor of Hogan, while 11% are undecided.

Hogan, however, remains popular with Maryland voters with a 50% favorable opinion. Alsobrooks has a 40% favorable opinion.

By party, 72% of Maryland Democrats surveyed said they will vote for Alsobrooks, while 82% of Republicans say they will vote for Hogan. Among independents, Hogan is up 10 points, 41%-31%, if the election were held today.

"For a Republican to win statewide in Maryland it always comes down to basic mathematics…can Hogan snatch away 30% of the Democratic vote to secure victory on November 5th," the Gonzales Poll says.

Hogan vs. Alsobrooks

Hogan, a former two-term Maryland governor, and Alsobrooks, the Prince George's County Executive, are vying for the U.S. Senate seat being left by Democrat Ben Cardin, who announced his retirement last year .

Hogan's surprise entrance into the race in February introduced a major challenge for Democrats looking to hold onto their one-seat majority in the Senate.

A Republican win in Maryland could doom Democrats' majority in the chamber. And even before Hogan's announcement, Democrats faced steep odds of holding the majority. Though Republicans are defending 10 safely red seats, three Democrats are up for reelection in states that Trump won in 2020. And in another five states considered swing states, Democrats' reelection isn't guaranteed, according to CBS News.

Hogan, who served from 2015 to 2023, left office with approval ratings in the 70s.

Alsobrooks, a former prosecutor, could be the first Black woman to represent Maryland in the Senate, and just the fourth Black woman to serve in the Senate in its history.

Should Hogan win in November, it would mark the first time a Republican has won a Maryland Senate seat in nearly four decades.