Cool morning temperatures make a return to North Texas

NORTH TEXAS — Enjoy the cooler temps and drier air for a brief few days.

Feels like temps will be even a touch lower the next several mornings, getting progressively better through early next week.

The Gulf

The National Hurrican Center upped the formation odds for the Bay of Campeche disturbance to 50% through 7 days. This one warrants our close attention.

First, it could keep deeper tropical moisture in the southern plains and increase rain chances through late next week.

Secondly, some global ensembles and deterministic model runs have shown this moving up over southeast and east Texas through late next week, staying mainly along and east of the i35 corridor. Regardless of maturation/organization, any swath of "spinning," deeper tropical moisture could open us up to greater rain chances late in the week, and perhaps the possibility of heavier rainfall at times.

We'll continue to monitor this disturbance's progress as it moves over extremely warm Gulf waters and eventually gets caught up in the larger jet stream pattern over the lower 48.

A tropical depression or storm could form as early as Tuesday or Wednesday. From there, there's no telling what could or would happen. We'll know more after a tighter circulation or more symmetry emerges.

These Gulf sea surface temperatures are a problem.

During the daytime, some buoys have reported temps near or above 92-93F, which is abnormally warm. Generally, 80-83F is considered necessary for greater tropical genesis and evolution. Temperatures running this warm would allow for rapid intensification.

Fantastic forecast. Rain chances return mid-to-late week regardless of the tropics, due to another dip in the jet stream through the southern plains.