College football betting guide: Trends to consider before making picks, predictions for the 2024 season

College football has changed a lot in recent years, but not every change has involved paying players or conference realignment. For fans, one of the biggest shifts has been the prevalence of sports betting.

Once an activity banished to the back corner of a dingy bar, only to be whispered about, betting on sports is now legal in many states nationwide. When you tune into a college football game on a Saturday afternoon, you're assailed non-stop with ads for legal online sportsbooks during commercial breaks and even sponsored in-game segments. Last year, the Big Ten passed a rule requiring its teams to publish injury reports and the SEC plans to do the same this year. These are changes made with gambling in mind to help ensure there isn't any foul play.

Eventually, we will see the conferences pair with sportsbooks as an additional source of revenue. Hell, given what we've heard about the Big 12 looking to sell its naming rights , we might see a league named after one soon!

All of this has led to more fans dipping their toe into the world of sports betting. It can be intimidating if you don't know what you're doing, but don't worry -- nearly everybody doing it doesn't know what they're doing, either. This is a handy little betting guide to help teach you some of the absolute basics; it is not a guide to winning money betting on sports.

Sorry to hit you with a bucket of cold water, but most people don't win money betting on sports, even though every one of your friends says they do. Unless you plan on doing this professionally, which consumes far more of your time than you realize, the goal should be to win some bets and have fun. This guide should help you achieve those goals.

All stats and trends according to TruMedia

College football betting basics

What can you bet in college football? While sportsbooks will offer prop bets on players and game-time situations during the season, those are more difficult to master, particularly if one does not understand the basics. The bread and butter of college football betting consists of the point spread (or "spread"), the total and the moneyline.

The spread : The most popular bet, the spread is the number of points given to a team to handicap a game with two equally likely outcomes. For example: in Week 0, Florida State and Georgia Tech are squaring off in Ireland. The spreads are listed as Florida State (-12.5) vs. Georgia Tech (+12.5). The easiest way to think about this is the game starts with Georgia Tech given a 12.5-point lead. Suppose you bet Florida State (-12.5), the Seminoles need to win by at least 13 points for you to win your bet. If you bet Georgia Tech, you win your bet if Tech wins outright or loses by 12 points or fewer. While this spread includes a half-point to make sure there's no tie, that's not always the case. If the spread was 13 and the game ended with a 13-point margin, your bet would be graded a "push" and your money would be refunded.

The total : This represents the total points scored in the game. The listed total for the same Florida State-Georgia Tech game is 56.5 points. You can bet on the over or under. If you think more than 56.5 points will be scored in the game, you bet the over 56.5. If you think there will be fewer, you bet the under 56.5. Pretty straightforward, isn't it?

The moneyline : This is the simplest bet because you're picking who will win the game outright. The math isn't straightforward, however. As a 12.5-point favorite, Florida State is clearly expected to win more often, which is why it's listed at (-500) on the moneyline. Georgia Tech is at (+375). That means the payouts will differ depending on which side you choose.

A simple way to go about it is to think in $100 bets: To win $100 betting Florida State at (-500), you must risk $500. Conversely, a $100 bet on Georgia Tech (+375) would win you $375 if the Yellow Jackets pull off the upset. You are paying the price, given the likelihood of your chosen outcome occurring.

Another way to think about it: If the odds are (-500), divide one by five and you get 0.20, which means you will win 20 cents for every dollar you risk. If you have plus odds, like Georgia Tech at (+375), multiply one by 3.75. You win $3.75 for every dollar you risk.

Odds : Moneylines are not the only bets with odds attached to them. Spread and total bets have odds as well. Using the same game as the example, Florida State -12.5 is listed with (-110) attached. Georgia Tech +12.5 also has (-110), as do both sides of the total. This is called the "juice" or "vigorish" (aka "vig"). Essentially, it's how much the sportsbook charges you for the ability to make a bet. While -110 is standard, the odds can fluctuate for spreads and totals depending on various factors. Like the moneyline, with -110 juice you have to bet $110 to win $100. Another factor you must consider, though, is implied odds.

Implied odds

The simplest way to think of implied odds is how often you have to win a particular bet to make money. The math is simple. If the odds are a negative number, remove the negative and add 100 to that number. Then divide the original odds by the new number. So, for -110, we add 100 to 110 to get 210. We then divide 110 by 210 to get 52.38%. That means you must be correct 52.38% of the time to make money on that wager. If you place 100 bets at (-110) and win 52, you will lose money even though you won more bets than you lost.

If the juice is a positive number, the process is slightly different. Using Georgia Tech's moneyline of (+375), we again add 100 to the 375 before dividing 100 by the new number. So, it would be 100 divided by 475, which equals 21.05%. Georgia Tech needs to win the game 21.05% of the time for you to break even in the long run. Those are its implied odds. If you want to bet Florida State (-500), you better be sure the Seminoles are winning the game at least 83.33% (500/600) of the time.

I know what you're thinking. "But, Tom, when I add up the implied odds of those moneyline bets, I get 104.38%!"

You sure do! There's a reason there are so many sportsbooks out there and they all make money. They're designed so that no matter what happens, the sportsbook will make money, and you will lose money in the long run if you aren't familiar with the implied odds of a bet.

Now that we've gotten the education out of the way, let's get to some of the fun stuff.

Is there an advantage to betting favorites or underdogs?

There is not. One thing to remember as you enter the sports betting space is nothing is designed to make it easier for you to win. While you can sometimes see casual bettors betting on favorites ("they're the better team, of course they'll cover!") or the more recognizable team ("Georgia is good, right?"), that doesn't have an impact on results. Plus, the books know this and will juice things accordingly.

I have numbers to back it up if you're skeptical. Going back to the 2014 season, the beginning of the College Football Playoff era, excluding pushes, favorites have gone 4,071-4,207 ATS. That's a cover rate of 49.2%. That means underdogs have covered 50.8% of the time.

But remember, the vig exists, and at standard juice of (-110) you need to win 52.38% of your bets to make money. So if you had bet every underdog in every game since 2014, you'd have won more often than you lost but still have lost a lot of money along the way.

Also, no matter the spread, there's no noticeable difference. A 20-point favorite is just as likely to cover as a 3-point favorite. So when you see a team that's a 31-point underdog, don't talk yourself into "this team starts with a 31-0 lead! I can't lose!" You can, and you will half the time.

For entertainment purposes, here's a look at the schools that have been favored the most since 2014, along with the schools that have covered the most often as favorites. Below that will be most frequent underdogs.

Most frequent favorites (since 2014)

Most successful favorites since 2014 (min. 30 games)

Most frequent underdogs (since 2014)

Most successful underdogs since 2014 (min. 30 games)

Is the over or under a better bet?

Going back to the 2014 season, there's more of an advantage here than the spread but not enough to win money. Since 2014, the under has hit more often, winning at a rate of 51.2%. Again, assuming standard juice, we need to win 52.38% of the time, so we'd have lost less money on the under but have lost it all the same.

All that said, there are some things to consider when deciding to bet on the total. None of it's foolproof, but it's a decent place to start. Typically, teams that move at a quicker tempo on offense and run a lot of plays are more likely to score points. Conversely, the teams that move slowly, run the ball a lot and play the field position game score fewer points.

Another thing to look for is how teams perform in the red zone. An offense that can easily move the ball down the field but struggles to finish drives and settles for field goals can sometimes "trick" you. Some defenses play a bend-but-don't-break style that allows plenty of yards but shuts things down in the red zone and holds teams to field goals.

I always pay attention to how the two teams in a game perform in the red zone on both sides of the ball before placing a bet on the total. There is no magic formula to find winners, but paying attention to this can give you a slight leg up on those who don't. It's not a bad thing to consider when betting the spread, either.

Also, you want to pay attention to rule changes and how they impact games. With new clock rules in place last season, we saw a lot of games early in the season finishing under the posted total before books began lowering totals for games. From 2014 to 2022, the average total for an FBS game was 56.21. The average total for the 2023 season was 52.22. That's an incredible drop! How might the implementation of a two-minute warning impact games this season? My guess is it'll lead to more points because the additional timeout will allow offenses more time to score late in games, but we won't know until the games begin.

As we did with favorites and underdogs, let's look at which teams go over the total the most often and which ones tend to stay under.

Best 'over' teams (min. 100 games)

Best 'under' teams (min. 100 games)

Do trends matter?

Not nearly as much as people will lead you to believe. From a purely mathematical standpoint, trends hold no predictive value. A team covering its last five games as a road underdog does not guarantee they'll cover the sixth.

Trends are nice to support theories about a game, but they should never be followed blindly. I'll use my favorite "trend" as an example. Since the 2005 season, when service academies (Air Force, Army and Navy) play each other, the under has gone an astounding 46-10-1. It seems impossible, but it's easy to understand. Service academies run option offenses and run the ball on nearly 80% of their plays. That means the clock rarely stops running, which limits the overall number of plays and possessions in a game, and the fewer plays and possessions, the fewer opportunities to score points.

It's been a bet I've placed on each of the three meetings between the academies for years, but I never do it blindly.

As I mentioned earlier, the average total for FBS games dropped from 56.21 between 2014 and 2022 to 52.22 last season, and service academy games were not immune. For years, the totals for these games were posted in the 40s. Last year's Army-Navy Game finished with a total of 28.5. At some point, the trend will come to an end, and my sense is that end is closer than ever before.

So when somebody tells you to make a bet because of a trend, instead of following the trend, try to figure out why that trend exists and if there's anything that explains it. If you realize it's just dumb luck, ignore it, but if you believe you've found something behind it, then you can consider trusting it.

But always remember that just because it's worked in the past doesn't mean it will continue to work in the future.

How am I supposed to make money doing this?

You aren't. I know that much of what I've written here can make it seem like there's no point in betting on sports, but it depends on your ultimate goal. If you want to be a bettor that makes money in the long run, it's possible. Plenty of people do so, but they devote a lot of time and attention to doing so.

Successful bettors aren't opening their phone five minutes before kickoff and going with their gut. They spend hours monitoring stats and data to form power ratings and looking for spots to exploit. And these pros and semi-pros will tell you that it gets harder to find those edges every single year, particularly now that it's legal to bet on sports in so many parts of the country.

That's why the best advice I can give you is to have fun. Do not start betting on games thinking you're going to get rich. You might get lucky and get a big win, but you're far more likely to lose in the long run.

Never bet more than you're comfortable losing, and remind yourself that it's all designed to have you lose.

When a commercial tells you how great the parlays are at a sportsbook, ask yourself, "Why do they want me to bet parlays so badly?" Simple! They're harder to win! Think of it as a coin flip. If you flip a coin once, there's a 50% chance it'll be heads, but if you have to get heads twice in a row, the chances drop to 25%. For every leg you add, the less likely you are to win, and while the payouts on parlays increase with each leg, they never increase enough to match your actual odds of winning.

Also, the "odds boosts" offered by books are rarely as beneficial to you as they'll have you believe. That's not to say there aren't boosts worth taking, but use your better judgment before placing a bet simply because the sportsbook is pushing it.

And, finally, if you read this and manage to crack the code, remember the person who helped set you on the path to wealth beyond your wildest dreams, will you?