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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model backing Chargers, Bills in Week 1, 2024

By CBS Sports Staff,

2 days ago

https://img.particlenews.com/image.php?url=3nqA59_0v2y9qCx00 — USATSI

While the Chiefs have reigned supreme over the last two seasons, no team can compare with the Lions when it comes to success against the spread. Detroit is a league-best 26-11 against the spread since 2022, including the playoffs, giving it four more ATS victories than any other franchise. Backing Detroit with Week 1 NFL bets seems like an easy choice against the Rams on Sunday Night Football. The Lions are 3.5-point home favorites, according to the Week 1 NFL odds, giving this contest the same line as when the teams met in last season's Wild Card Round.

The Lions prevailed in that playoff game, but it wasn't one of their 26 ATS wins over the last two years. Before making any Week 1 NFL picks, you'll have to decide if you'll put more weight on Detroit's unparalleled spread success over the last two years or on the Rams covering when these teams met eight months ago. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick .

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders . L.A. quarterback Justin Herbert has carved up the Raiders throughout his career, posting 15 passing touchdowns versus just two interceptions. He actually has more rushing TDs (three) versus the Raiders than picks thrown. Las Vegas ranked 26th in redzone defense and 27th in third-down defense last year, so Herbert is expected to have continued success against Vegas in Week 1.

Meanwhile, Raiders' QB Gardner Minshew is expected to be under constant pressure versus a defense that ranked seventh with 48 sacks last year, despite four-time Pro Bowler Joey Bosa missing half the year. He's now healthy, Khalil Mack is still around, and L.A. added to its pass rush strength by signing Bud Dupree, who has 53 career sacks. The model sees the QB position as the difference in this game, with Minshew having the same number of turnovers as touchdowns, while Herbert has a 3:1 TD:INT. With that dramatic advantage, the Chargers (-3) cover almost 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here .

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals . This matchup features two dynamic quarterbacks but just one elite defense. That's the main difference between the teams as Josh Allen is projected to account for at least three total touchdowns against a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-most points in the NFL last season. As for Kyler Murray, he's facing the reigning No. 4 scoring defense and isn't even projected to total two touchdowns via his arm and legs.

Buffalo lost WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but it still has the emerging Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid, as well as rookie wideout Keon Coleman. All three are projected to surpass 50 receiving yards, while RB James Cook is expected to continue his torrid production. Cook averaged over 100 scrimmage yards over his last 10 games of 2023, and the model expects another 100-yard outing via rushing and receiving come Week 1. Arizona doesn't have the offensive firepower to match Buffalo, as the Bills (-6.5) cover nearly 70% of the time. The model also says the Over (48) hits in over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine .

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 , and find out.