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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model high on Chargers, Bills in Week 1, 2024

By CBS Sports Staff,

12 hours ago

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As soon as the Week 1 NFL schedule was released, the Week 1 NFL odds were posted as well. There is just one game with a spread of more than a touchdown, Joe Burrow's Bengals favored by nine over the Patriots as they begin the post-Bill Belichick era. The smallest Week 1 NFL spread has the Vikings favored by a single point over the Giants . Other interconference matchups outside of those two contests include Jaguars vs. Dolphins (-3.5), Commanders vs. Buccaneers (-3.5) and Rams vs. Lions (-3.5).

Oddsmakers will adjust their NFL lines constantly, so having help with your NFL betting strategy can be beneficial. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick .

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders . You may have heard that the Chargers have a new head coach in Jim Harbaugh, and all he's done is win at every stop of his coaching career. The last time he was on the sideline was a CFP National Championship Game win, and in his last NFL stop, he led the 49ers to a 44-19-1 record from 2011-14, which was the fourth-best over that span. Even though Harbaugh was a quarterback in his playing days, he's a defensive-minded head coach which is just what the Chargers need.

Michigan had the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation last year, while the 49ers gave up the second-fewest points in the NFL while Harbaugh was in charge. Even with several offensive departures, L.A. should be just fine with a healthy Justin Herbert under center, so the strides it gains on defense will make this a complete team instead of the one-dimensional unit that it has been recently. Meanwhile, the Raiders are rolling out journeyman Gardner Minshew at QB, and the team lost RB Josh Jacobs to Green Bay. With Los Angeles being ahead of Las Vegas on both sides of the ball, the Chargers (-3) cover almost 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here .

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-6.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals . Year after year, Buffalo brings one of the most balanced teams to the table as it has ranked in the top six in both scoring offense and scoring defense each of the past three seasons. In 2023, the team leaned more on the ground game following an in-season OC change, and James Cook's rushing ability takes pressure off Josh Allen . Cook ranked fourth in rushing yards (1,122) last year despite ranking just 10th in carries and should carve up Arizona's 32nd-ranked run defense from a year ago.

On the other side of the ball, Arizona lost two of its best playmakers in Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore . Additionally, Kyler Murray struggled in his return from injury as his QBR of 47.2 was the lowest of his five-year career. This game is a matchup between a Super Bowl contender and a team in the midst of a rebuild, as the model has Buffalo covering nearly 70% of the time. The model also says the Over (48) hits in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .

How to make Week 1 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule and just revealed four teams that win outright over 70% of the time. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine .

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four favorites should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000 , and find out.