2024 BMW Championship odds, predictions, field: Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy picks by proven golf model

The FedEx Cup Playoffs continue this week with the 2024 BMW Championship, which is being hosted by Castle Pines Golf Club in Castle Rock, Colorado. This is the first time the BMW Championship is returning to the Denver area since 2014, and this will be the longest course in PGA Tour history at 8,130 yards. However, the average altitude is 6,200 feet, so the ball flies much farther than it does at sea level. How should that factor influence your 2024 BMW Championship bets?

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is the +320 favorite (risk $100 to win $320) in the 2024 BMW Championship odds, followed by Xander Schauffele (+650) and Rory McIlroy (+1000). There are 50 golfers in the 2024 BMW Championship field, and the top 30 will advance to the Tour Championship next week. Before locking in your 2024 BMW Championship picks or PGA props, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine .

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up more than $9,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters -- its third Masters in a row -- and this year's PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now with the BMW Championship 2024 field set, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 BMW Championship golf predictions

One surprise: McIlroy, a four-time major champion and one of the top favorites, does not crack the top five this week. McIlroy finished second to Bryson DeChambeau in the U.S. Open after missing a pair of short putts in the final three holes, and he has struggled to post consistent results since then. He missed the cut in the final major of the year at the Open Championship before finishing T68 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week.

McIlroy ranks outside the top 100 on the PGA Tour in GIR percentage and outside the top 80 in driving accuracy. He might be tempted to pump up his driving distance this week on the long course, which could bring more of his inaccuracy issues into play. The model does not feel good about backing the inconsistent Northern Irishman this week, recommending other golfers instead.

The model has also examined where Schauffele finishes. The 30-year-old is amid the best season of his career, winning his first two majors while making the cut in all 19 events he has played in. Schauffele won the PGA Championship in May before winning the Open Championship in July, and he has finished inside the top 15 in nine straight tournaments. He finished T2 in the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week, despite starting the final round nine shots back of the lead.

Schauffele played a bogey-free round of 63 on Sunday, giving him momentum heading into Thursday's opening round. However, he ranks outside the top 30 on the PGA Tour in driving distance and driving accuracy, which could be an issue at a course this long. Schauffele is the only player who can jump Scheffler in the FedEx Cup standings before the Tour Championship. The model just locked in its Xander Schauffele BMW Championship picks here .

How to make 2024 BMW Championship picks

The model has revealed where Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele finish, along with identifying three golfers with odds of 30-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here .

Who will win the 2024 BMW Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the BMW Championship 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected BMW Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 13 golf majors, including the last three Masters, the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open .

2024 BMW Championship odds, field

Get full 2024 BMW Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.

Scottie Scheffler +320
Xander Schauffele +650
Rory McIlroy +1000
Collin Morikawa +1200
Viktor Hovland +1800
Ludvig Aberg +1800
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Tommy Fleetwood +2500
Tony Finau +2500
Corey Conners +3000
Sam Burns +3000
Wyndham Clark +3500
Sungjae Im +3500
Cameron Young +4000
Billy Horschel +4000
Adam Scott +4000
Aaron Rai +4000
Russell Henley +4000
Justin Thomas +4000
Shane Lowry +4500
Sahith Theegala +4500
Jason Day +4500
Byeong Hun An +5000
Akshay Bhatia +5000
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Davis Thompson +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Robert MacIntyre +5500
Brian Harman +6000
Keegan Bradley +6000
Alex Noren +6500
Will Zalatoris +6500
Taylor Pendrith +6500
Max Greyserman +6500
Denny McCarthy +7000
Thomas Detry +7500
Si Woo Kim +7500
Sepp Straka +7500
Tom Hoge +8000
Nick Dunlap +8000
Max Homa +8000
Eric Cole +8000
Cam Davis +9000
Austin Eckroat +9000
J.T. Poston +11000
Chris Kirk +12000
Adam Hadwin +12000
Stephan Jaeger +12000
Matthieu Pavon +15000