Before we dive into the actual picks, allow me my annual rant on the MVP betting space: it is utterly ridiculous that there are 11 (!) players 20-1 or lower in terms of MVP odds. Do you know what has to happen over the full course of a season to win MVP? The only reason the odds are so shrunk is sportsbooks got torched by Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in their respective second seasons, when they won MVP with offseason odds in the 75-1 range. The departure of Tom Brady/Peyton Manning/etc doesn't help matters -- there's a new crop of quarterbacks and there's a lot more variance here.
We know it will be a quarterback. There have been four non-QB winners since the year 2000. All four -- Marshall Faulk (2000), Shaun Alexander (2005), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and Adrian Peterson (2012) -- were running backs and won at least over a decade ago. Under the new voting process (top five picks from 50 voters, versus just a single vote) instituted in 2022, we've seen Justin Jefferson finish fifth and Christian McCaffrey finish third. But neither player received a first-place vote in those years. Don't bet on non-quarterbacks unless you like setting money on fire.
We also know the quarterback needs to win the division. The Vikings finished second in the NFC North in 2012, but you have to go back to 2008, when a 12-4 Colts team finished second in the AFC South (the Titans went 13-3) and Peyton Manning's incredible season to find a quarterback who didn't win his division and still won MVP. In other words, you want your MVP bets to be on good teams. It's why Justin Fields steam -- which I called " flat-out dumb and completely unbettable " -- last year made zero sense.
For the second straight year, Allen will be my "official" MVP pick for the site when we release them. I also think he's the best bet at the top of the MVP odds to win this award. Mahomes (+475) is just too short, C.J. Stroud (+850), Jordan Love (14-1) and Jared Goff (20-1) are all a bit over their skis from an odds standpoint. Lamar (18-1) is tough because he has to repeat. Aaron Rodgers (16-1) is 40 and coming off a torn Achilles and a massive favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. Brock Purdy (18-1) needs the seas to part a la last year with other QBs in order to win, in my opinion because of the players around him and the perceived system.
Joe Burrow (9-1), Dak Prescott (18-1) Tua Tagovailoa are all intriguing. However, there are some personnel concerns (new OC, Ja'Marr Chase contract) in Cincy, Burrow has to stay healthy and that's a short number. Dak is good value but he literally just threw for 4,516 yards, 36 touchdowns and only nine interceptions, the Cowboys won the NFC East ... and he didn't get a single first-place MVP vote. Tua didn't get a vote last year after being the favorite late in the season and leading the league in passing yards, has a brutal division and Tyreek Hill is likely to syphon votes away from his QB.
Which brings us to Allen. He finished fifth last year and got the only non Lamar first-place vote. In 2022 he finished third and got one of two non Mahomes first-place votes. Clearly the MVP voters are willing to reward Allen if he plays at a high level.
The Bills are the favorite to win the AFC East, albeit tied with the Jets at +180. (For what it's worth I love the value on Buffalo there.)
And then there's Narrative Street. The Bills traded Stefon Diggs this offseason, removing Allen's long-time No. 1 wideout and replacing him with a potpourri of Curtis Samuel/Mack Hollins (free agency), Keon Coleman (draft) and Dalton Kincaid/Khalil Shakir (incumbents). Even the sharpest NFL and fantasy analysts aren't 100 percent sure how this group will be deployed, although I think we have a decent idea given OC Joe Brady's usage of Samuel in Carolina, Coleman's preseason usage and Pete Prisco's training camp tweets from in Buffalo, which pinpoint Kincaid as a monster this year.
Regardless, Allen and the Bills are getting the same treatment as Mahomes and the Chiefs prior to 2022 after they traded Tyreek Hill. Remember, the Chiefs were a laughable +160 to win the AFC West that year. Mahomes threw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns despite not having a true top wideout (allegedly, hello Travis Kelce ) and ran away with the MVP award.
I think Allen is set up to do the same this year and is a worthy bet at his current price.
We could go back to the Lawrence well this year and get him at a better price. Frankly, that's probably a pretty decent move. I don't hate the idea of just making your portfolio three guys in the 30-1 range given the options. Richardson is a pretty easy click at his number. What we saw in a very small sample size in 2023 was a quarterback who could dominate on the ground and through the air and potentially produce a Cam Newton style 2015 season, or a Lamar Jackson 2019 Konami Code year. Neither Cam nor Lamar cracked 4,000 passing yards in those respective seasons, even though both were deadly efficient through the air. It was the rushing prowess that distinguished each of them, with Cam scoring double-digit touchdowns and Lamar running for more than 1,200 yards (while also throwing 36 passing touchdowns).
Richardson has that kind of upside in Shane Steichen's system. He played so little last year it's hard to parse out a true "17-game pace" for AR, but in not even a full four games he threw for three touchdowns and ran in another three. Yes, he was injured on two designed runs and that is deeply concerning for him staying healthy over the full season. But he's certainly built like someone who can sustain that type of physicality, a season of sitting might have benefited him from studying the offense and learning how to avoid contact in certain spots.
The Colts have a win total of 8.5 (juiced slightly to the under) and are +310 to win the division. The Texans and Jaguars and the Titans to some extent certainly make for a difficult path. But Indy almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshew last year. I'm confident in this coaching staff and confident AR15 can get in the mix here ... if he's healthy.
Stafford ended up getting four MVP votes last season -- which was one of my bold predictions before the season -- even though he didn't secure a first-place vote. The path here is pretty simple, too. It involves part statistical production and part narrative, with those two things presenting themself in a correlated fashion. Or, if you prefer: Aaron Donald is gone.
The lack of Donald has moved the Rams into the +330 range to win the NFC West and a 30-1 Super Bowl longshot, even though the team is largely the same from the squad that won the Lombardi just three years ago. Because of that narrative, winning the division over the stacked 49ers (something doesn't have to be likely to be plausible and/or possible) would push Stafford's case even higher. And because Donald is gone, it stands to reason the Rams will need to win with offense. They dramatically improved the offensive line this offseason and added several skill-position pieces: Blake Corum (draft), Colby Parikinson (free agency) and Jordan Whittington (draft) are all sneaky great additions. The Rams will also have a fully healthy Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua/Kyren Williams in their second seasons. This offense could COOK.
Stafford led the league in interceptions in 2021 with 17 and he'll probably have a decent number again this year because that's who he is. But if he cuts down on them and throws for 4,800+ yards and 40+ touchdowns (as he did that season) and the Rams win the division, he'll be firmly in the mix for the MVP discussion.
OK, again, these are LONG SHOTS. And we want to find guys who have a reasonable chance at hitting our criteria above. Sam Darnold , 100-1 and now the Vikings presumptive season-long starter, didn't make the cut because I really don't think the Vikings can win that division, Justin Jefferson should cannibalize his votes and Kevin O'Connell will get most of the credit. I do like Darnold this year though!
Geno Smith, on the other hand, is the entrenched starter in Seattle, on a team with a reasonable chance at winning the division, with a new coaching staff that should employ a much more quarterback-friendly offense. Mike MacDonald comes to town and brings OC Ryan Grubb with him. Grubb orchestrated the Washington offense last year that turned Michael Penix, Jr., into a top-10 pick and turned three wide receivers into very high draft selections in Rome Odunze (also top-10), Ja'Lynn Polk (second rounder) and Jalen McMillan (third round). Those three match up very nicely with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxson Smith-Njigba, so it's possible we could end up seeing a similar dynamic trio operate in Seattle. The offensive line is slightly concerning but if it holds up there's also a good chance Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet could be outstanding at running back. A Noah Fant breakout isn't out of the question, considering how he young he still. In other words, if Seattle surprises and wins the division, it will be because the offense took a massive leap under a new regime. And Geno should get plenty of credit for that development.
Levis is a REAL long shot, but I think his number is better than most. Perhaps you read the glowing Tuscan Castle-filled breakdown of Levis game from our own Pete Prisco? Levis also has a new coaching staff and I'm bullish on Brian Callahan, especially since he brought his dad Bill along with him to Tennessee. That development should help the run game in a massive way, as should the addition of Tony Pollard along with Tajae Spears in the backfield. Tennessee's OL isn't in great shape, but picking up J.C. Latham in the draft is massive. The Titans also went out and splurged on Calvin Ridley in free agency. Pairing him with DeAndre Hopkins and then adding Tyler Boyd gives them a really nice, complementary veteran wideout group. Chig Okonkwo and Josh Whyle are sneaky tight end options. The AFC South is a tough division, but it's at least gettable. Levis has the arm, no question. And even though he fell to the second round, he might have the pedigree too. He's been endorsed by Peyton Manning and he was at one point considered a top-five pick in the draft before his dip. Maybe he takes a massive leap in his second year and leads the Titans to a division title.
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