2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Heath Cummings' Busts 3.0 highlights three rules to avoid busts in 2024

I'm trying something a little bit different with my busts this version. I have laid out three rules to help you avoid busts, and then made the case against some of the most obvious instances. You can use these rules and apply them to other players, hoping to help you avoid even more busts than before. But before we get to the rules, there are two players who are simply being drafted way too high, regardless of what rules they may or may not break.

The first is Jordan Love . In CBS PPR average draft position , Love's ADP is now inside the top 60 and still climbing. He is being drafted three picks ahead of Anthony Richardson , 20 picks ahead of Kyler Murray , and 48 picks ahead of Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams . I would rather draft all four, because of their upside advantage on Love. He's also being drafted five rounds before Trevor Lawrence , who I have a similar projection on. If I was going to create a rule for Love, it would be don't draft a QB in the first five rounds unless you believe they could throw for 5,000 yards or run for 500. Of course, that rule would also apply to C.J. Stroud , who you probably shouldn't draft at his ADP either.

The second uncategorized bust is Nick Chubb . How does don't draft older running backs coming off catastrophic knee injuries sound? Doesn't exactly roll off the tongue. While Chubb is back to squatting massive amounts of weight, he's still on the PUP list and we expect him to stay there for at least the first month of the season. Even once he's activated I would expect a committee approach, and efficiency that does not remind you of Nick Chubb. In full PPR, I do not want to draft him before Round 10 and I prefer his teammate Jerome Ford straight up. As of August 22nd, Chubb has a Round 7 ADP, while Ford is being drafted in Round 9. Now let's get to our rules to avoid busts:

1. Don't draft veteran running backs who changed teams and expect them to be better than they were in 2023.

This year we saw an incredible number of running backs change teams. Saquon Barkley is on the Eagles now, Derrick Henry is a Raven, Josh Jacobs is a Packer, Joe Mixon is a Texan, Tony Pollard is a Titan, D'Andre Swift is a Bear, Aaron Jones is a Viking, and Devind Singletary is a Giant. Those are just the running backs who rank inside my top 30 in full PPR. While some of those opportunities may sound exciting, there's good reason to be concerned. Just look at this research from Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points:

If you didn't read the thread, the bottom line is this: On aggregate veteran running backs changing teams are worse the following year. The older the running back is, the more true this appears to be.

Last year Barkley finished as RB10 per game. His current ADP is seventh among all players. While I understand that the Eagles are a better offense with a better offensive line than the Giants , Jacob Gibbs did well to point out that Philadelphia has not been a good place for running back Fantasy production since Jalen Hurts got there. This makes sense to me; Hurts scores double-digit rushing touchdowns every year and has one of the lowest running back target rates in the league. I would not draft Barkley until the end of Round 2 and even that doesn't feel good.

Speaking of running QBs, Henry landed with Lamar Jackson . This could be great for his efficiency, but his volume is almost certainly going down. He finished 17th per game at running back last year and is currently being drafted 15th overall. This just seems flat out insane to me. Even if Henry was on the same team, expecting a 30-year-old running back to be better than he was at 29 is a bad bet. Doing so with what we know about backs changing teams is just foolish. I would not draft Henry before Round 4.

Jones won't turn 30 until December, but he missed six games last year with hamstring injuries, was RB29 per game, and is in a worse offensive environment in Minnesota. Somehow he's being drafted in Round 5 as a top 24 running back. This will be a true time share with Ty Chandler but Chandler is available in Round 12. Draft the cheaper guy and avoid all three of these veterans on new teams in 2024.

2. If a pass catcher over Age 30 shows signs of decline, believe them

Davante Adams and Travis Kelce both took big steps back in terms of efficiency in 2023. Adams' 11.1 yards per catch and 6.5 yards per target were his lowest marks since 2015. His 4.6% touchdown rate was his worst since 2019. He'll turn 32 years old in December. And the team drafted Brock Bowers . There's really nothing that justifies his early Round 3 ADP unless you're expecting Gardner Minshew to save the day. As much as I love Minshew, efficiency, and touchdowns aren't exactly his specialty. I wouldn't draft Adams before Round 4.

Kelce set a career-low at 10.6 yards per catch and 8.1 yards per target. His 4.1% touchdown rate was his lowest since 2019. He'll turn 35 in October and the team added both Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy in the offseason. The Chiefs want Kelce at 100% in February, not October. He's my TE4, but he's being drafted as the number one tight end, a full round ahead of TE2 Sam Laporta . I would rather have Trey McBride or Mark Andrews and they're both going close to two rounds later.

3. Don't be the first person to draft a quarterback in your league

Josh Allen is up to the 19th-highest ADP in CBS PPR rankings. That's three spots higher than Jalen Hurts, five spots higher than Patrick Mahomes , and 15 spots higher than Lamar Jackson. I view all four in a very similar light, but Allen is fourth for me. That's because I'm not sure he has a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver on the roster, and his options are pretty questionable at WR2. We just saw last year how bad weapons can crush a QB's Fantasy production.

I expect Joe Brady's run-heavy offense from the second half of 2023 to stay run-heavy, but I don't want to bet on Allen replicating last year's 15 rushing touchdowns. Even more, than that, I don't want to draft any QB with a top 20 pick in a one-quarterback league. Wait until Round 3 at the earliest, and pounce on Jackson in Round 4 if he's there as ADP suggests.