Optimal NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, strategy, advice for Week 1, 2024: Fade this home favorite

Fading Carolina was a popular NFL survivor strategy last year, as the Panthers finished with a league-worst 2-15 record. They will hope Year 2 is different under quarterback Bryce Young, who faces New Orleans during the Week 1 NFL schedule. The Saints are 4.5-point favorites in the Week 1 NFL odds, making them one of the biggest favorites on the NFL odds board. Should you select New Orleans with your Week 1 NFL survivor picks? Cincinnati is the heaviest favorite in Week 1 at -9.5 against New England, which is playing under first-year head coach Jerod Mayo. Creating winning NFL knockout pool picks requires a knowledge of the entire 2024 NFL schedule, but selecting a winner in Week 1 is mandatory. Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine .

Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Miami Dolphins , even though they're coming off an 11-6 season and are favored over a Jaguars team that went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. The Dolphins are dealing with a significant injury heading into the season, as star wide receiver Tyreek Hill has been wearing a protective brace on his right hand and is listed as questionable for this game. Hill is coming off a monster season, catching 119 passes for 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns.

Veteran Odell Beckham Jr. is also dealing with an injury, so Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's weapons are not at full strength. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's secondary is in good shape with Tyson Campbell and Ronald Darby both healthy heading into the season. The Jaguars improved their offense by adding wide receivers Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr., setting quarterback Trevor Lawrence up for an improvement in 2024. See which team to pick here .

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is backing a surprising home team that wins outright in almost 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine .

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL and is up well over $7,000 since its inception .