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Eagles vs. Packers prediction, odds, line, time, spread: 2024 NFL in Brazil picks from model on 181-129 roll
By CBS Sports Staff,
2 days ago
USATSI
The 2024 NFL schedule will begin with a championship celebration on Thursday, September 5, but then it will take an unexpected turn to South America on Friday when the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Green Bay Packers in the first-ever NFL in Brazil game. The popularity of the NFL has grown rapidly in Brazil and now that fanbase will be treated to a Week 1 matchup between two playoff teams from last season. Jordan Love and Jalen Hurts are among the most talented and highest-paid young quarterbacks in the league and they'll go head-to-head in a battle that could have playoff implications down the road.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Philadelphia won the NFC in 2022 and got off to a 10-1 start in 2023, but the wheels came off late in the season. The Eagles lost five of their last six games, lost control of home-field advantage, lost the division to the Cowboys, and were dismantled by the Buccaneers during NFL Wild Card Weekend. However, they've taken dramatic steps to remedy some of their issues.
Saquon Barkley should bolster an offense that scored fewer than 20 points in five of the last seven games, including the postseason. Meanwhile, the Eagles spent first- and second-round picks on defensive backs (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean) in an effort to strengthen a secondary that ranked 31st against the pass. If Jalen Hurts can cut down on turnovers as well, this still figures to be a contender in the NFC. See who to back at SportsLine .
Why the Packers can cover
The Packers over/under last season was a modest 7.5 with unknowns around Jordan Love as a starting quarterback and how the team would play without Aaron Rodgers. But after going 9-8 last year and upsetting No. 2 Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round, their over/under this season has moved to 9.5. Love proved to be a quality starting quarterback, finishing seventh in the NFL in passing yards (4,159) and second in passing touchdowns (32). That was enough to earn him a four-year, $220 million contract this offseason and he returns the majority of his favorite weapons from an offense that averaged 30.4 points per game over its final five games, including the playoffs.
Green Bay led the eventual NFC Champion San Francisco 49ers, 21-14, entering the fourth quarter of their playoff matchups last season. Green Bay made improvements after that loss, adding talent to its defense by signing former Giants safety Xavier McKinney. After ending the regular season 6-2 and winning a playoff game before losing to the eventual conference champions, the Packers appear to be a team poised for another playoff run entering the 2024 NFL season and that could begin with a Week 1 victory. See who to back at SportsLine .
How to make Eagles vs. Packers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 55 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50% of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see its NFL picks .
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