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Eagles vs. Packers prediction, odds, line, time, spread: 2024 NFL in Brazil picks from model on 181-129 roll
By CBS Sports Staff,
1 day ago
USATSI
The Week 1 NFL schedule looks different in 2024 with the league adding a Friday game in Sao Paulo, Brazil between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. Both teams are coming off a playoff season and have committed more $200 million to their young quarterbacks, with Jalen Hurts cashing in for the Eagles in 2023 and Jordan Love signing his extension this summer with the Packers. Now, the NFC contenders will have a standalone, primetime matchup to launch their 2024 campaigns.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Philadelphia won the NFC in 2022 and got off to a 10-1 start in 2023, but the wheels came off late in the season. The Eagles lost five of their last six games, lost control of home-field advantage, lost the division to the Cowboys, and were dismantled by the Buccaneers during NFL Wild Card Weekend. However, they've taken dramatic steps to remedy some of their issues.
Saquon Barkley should bolster an offense that scored fewer than 20 points in five of the last seven games, including the postseason. Meanwhile, the Eagles spent first- and second-round picks on defensive backs (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean) in an effort to strengthen a secondary that ranked 31st against the pass. If Jalen Hurts can cut down on turnovers as well, this still figures to be a contender in the NFC. See who to back at SportsLine .
Why the Packers can cover
The Eagles might've had the better regular season record at 11-6 last year, but if there's any momentum carryover from last year, it belongs to the Packers. Despite its 9-8 regular-season mark, Green Bay finished the year hot, winning six of its final eight regular season games. Green Bay then stunned the Cowboys 48-32 in the Wild-Card Round before falling 24-21 to the 49ers in the divisional round.
Philly gave up 30.6 points per game in its final seven contests last year, the second-worst mark in the NFL during that stretch. The Packers, meanwhile, were the youngest team to win a playoff game since 1970 last year, and they bring a majority of that roster back, plus the addition of veteran running back Josh Jacobs, giving them a great chance to win or at least cover as slight underdogs. See who to back at SportsLine .
How to make Eagles vs. Packers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, projecting the teams to combine for 55 points. The model also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50% of simulations. Head to SportsLine to see its NFL picks .
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