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2024 Week 1 NFL picks, odds, best bets from advanced model: This five-way football parlay pays out 25-1
By CBS Sports Staff,
15 hours ago
USATSI
Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins will start games for their third different franchises in the Week 1 NFL schedule. In addition, the two will go head-to-head in Steelers vs. Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons, led by Cousins, are 3-point favorites at home in the latest Week 1 NFL odds, one of the tightest Week 1 NFL spreads. Should you include Falcons in your Week 1 NFL parlay picks or can Wilson lead the Steelers to an upset for anyone backing them with their Week 1 NFL bets? Cousins' old team, the Vikings, are one-point road favorites against the Giants, while Wilson's old team, the Broncos, are six-point underdogs against Seattle in the Week 1 NFL Vegas odds. Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model .
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Detroit Lions (-3.5) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams. The Lions defeated the Rams, 24-23, in the Wild Card Round of last year's playoffs and although that wouldn't cover this number, the confidence of that win can't be overstated. Jared Goff completed 22 of 27 passes (81.5%) for 277 yards. Defensively, the Lions had a strong game plan to limit the success of Cooper Kupp as although he caught five passes, Kupp only totaled 27 yards on nine targets.
The Lions return the majority of last year's team and have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The offensive line's job will be a little easier in Week 1 than during last year's playoffs after the retirement of eight-time All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald. The Los Angeles defense will need to learn to play without Donald and with an offense as balanced as Detroit's, the Lions can find ways to capitalize on that. Detroit's home-field advantage will be loud when opening the season at home on Sunday Night Football and the model likes the Lions to cover the spread to begin the 2024 NFL season. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here .
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