2024 Week 1 NFL picks, odds, best bets from advanced model: This five-way football parlay pays out 25-1

Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins will start games for their third different franchises in the Week 1 NFL schedule. In addition, the two will go head-to-head in Steelers vs. Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons, led by Cousins, are 3-point favorites at home in the latest Week 1 NFL odds, one of the tightest Week 1 NFL spreads. Should you include Falcons in your Week 1 NFL parlay picks or can Wilson lead the Steelers to an upset for anyone backing them with their Week 1 NFL bets? Cousins' old team, the Vikings, are one-point road favorites against the Giants, while Wilson's old team, the Broncos, are six-point underdogs against Seattle in the Week 1 NFL Vegas odds. Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has scoured the Week 1 NFL odds and locked in five confident NFL best bets. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine .

Top Week 1 NFL picks

After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the Detroit Lions (-3.5) to cover at home against the Los Angeles Rams. The Lions defeated the Rams, 24-23, in the Wild Card Round of last year's playoffs and although that wouldn't cover this number, the confidence of that win can't be overstated. Jared Goff completed 22 of 27 passes (81.5%) for 277 yards. Defensively, the Lions had a strong game plan to limit the success of Cooper Kupp as although he caught five passes, Kupp only totaled 27 yards on nine targets.

The Lions return the majority of last year's team and have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The offensive line's job will be a little easier in Week 1 than during last year's playoffs after the retirement of eight-time All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald. The Los Angeles defense will need to learn to play without Donald and with an offense as balanced as Detroit's, the Lions can find ways to capitalize on that. Detroit's home-field advantage will be loud when opening the season at home on Sunday Night Football and the model likes the Lions to cover the spread to begin the 2024 NFL season. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here .

How to make Week 1 NFL parlays

The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a home favorite that covers the spread in almost 70% of simulations. You can only see the model's NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine .

What are the model's top Week 1 NFL picks, and which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 185-129 run on top-rated picks , and find out.