Bowl projections: Miami makes big move to join top four teams in updated College Football Playoff field

Week 1 is in the books and already there are changes in my original College Football Playoff projections .

Let's start by saying goodbye to Florida State . The Seminoles are not technically eliminated from CFP contention, but it is hard to see a road back to it without some significant improvements. Already at 0-2 in ACC play , the conference title may be out of reach. They have their first nonconference game this week against Memphis , which is no pushover. And, of course, there is the trip to Notre Dame in November. There are also conference games with Clemson and at Miami still to come. FSU may have to get better just to make it to a bowl game.

Still, it could be worse. Their in-state rival Florida got drilled in its home opener by Miami 41-17. It was the Gators' first loss in a home-opener in 35 years. Florida has an especially unforgiving SEC slate, with games to come against Texas A&M , Tennessee , Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss .

Coming off that performance, Miami looks clearly like the team to beat in the ACC and is now projected to get a top-4 seed in the CFP as a conference champion.

The other team to drop out of this week's CFP projection is Texas A&M following a 23-13 loss at home to Notre Dame . The Irish have replaced the Aggies in this week's projection. Notre Dame may be favored every time it takes take the field the rest of the way. The only other team left on its schedule that is likely to be in this week's rankings is USC . The Trojans host Notre Dame in the regular-season finale.

Even if the Irish were to run the table, the highest they could be seeded in the College Football Playoff is fifth because the top four seeds will be conference champions.

Iowa is the other new team in this week's CFP projection. The Hawkeyes still have to play at Ohio State but figure to be favored in the rest of their games. The Buckeyes could be the only ranked team Iowa plays this season because Oregon, Michigan , Penn State and USC are absent from the Hawkeyes' schedule.

The CFP selection committee will probably have to rely even more heavily on strength of schedule because all four major conferences are bloated. With so many teams in each conference, each team will only be playing about half of the others. Who you play and where you play them will make a big difference. I have always said that not all 10-2 records are the same. That is more true now than ever.

This week's bowl projections have six teams qualifying with five wins, up one from last week. One of those teams is Army , which I actually project to end up with six wins, but that sixth win is against Navy and would come after bowl selections are announced. Army and Navy have to become eligible before their traditional matchup in order to participate in a bowl game.

College Football Playoff

Quarterfinals

First round

If you are wondering why top-seeded Georgia is projected for the Sugar Bowl instead of the Peach Bowl, the CFP Selection Committee has decided to slot the top four seeds in bowl games where their conference has a historic relationship. The SEC champion has traditionally played in the Sugar Bowl, so the Bulldogs get that spot as the top seed. No. 2 Ohio State is in the Rose Bowl, the Big Ten's longtime home. When a traditional spot is not available, geography takes priority.

The traditional New Year's Six bowls will rotate as semifinal hosts. Participants in the Cotton Bowl and Orange Bowl this year will be determined starting with highest remaining seed getting preferential site placement.

Non-CFP bowl games will be interspersed around the playoff. Four bowl games are currently scheduled to be played after New Year's Day. The Camellia Bowl opens the calendar on Dec. 14, just a week after the conference championship games and the same day as the Army-Navy Game.

Most exciting about the new format are the first-round games being at home sites of the higher seeds. The home team has an option to designate a nearby site other than its home stadium if it chooses. For example, if Purdue earned a home game in the CFP, it could choose to play at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis instead of on campus. (A guy can dream, can't he?!)

The other significant change to this season is that we enter it having said goodbye to the Pac-12 -- at least as a competitive entity. Oregon State and Washington State are keeping the conference name alive for now, but they will be playing as independents holding a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West this season. Neither team will be eligible for the MWC title.

Despite not being a competitive entity, the Pac-12 still has contracts with six bowls, which will obviously be tough to fill with only two remaining teams, though the Beavers and Cougars will be eligible for bids. Those six bowls have made arrangements with the new conference homes of the old Pac-12 teams to fill the other slots. The Holiday Bowl, one of those Pac-12 bowls, has yet to schedule a date for this season's game.

There is one new team joining the FBS this season as Kennesaw State is moving up from FCS to Conference USA. Unlike James Madison and Jacksonville State in prior seasons, the Owls are postseason-eligible in their first FBS campaign because they spent their transition time playing in FCS. The Dukes and Gamecocks are now fully eligible for the postseason, too.

Despite having more teams involved in the CFP, we still need the same number of teams to fill the bowl games as we have in the recent past: 82. Like the two previous seasons, I expect there will be a need for at least one 5-7 team to fill a bowl spot. Last year was the first time since 2016 that, in a non-pandemic season, there was a need for more than one otherwise ineligible team. CBS Sports' initial bowl projections have a would-be-record five such teams taking those bids this season.

Don't see your team? Check out Jerry Palm's complete bowl projections .