Best NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, advice, strategy for 2024 Week 1: Avoid this home favorite

Avoiding uncertainty early in the season is the name of the game in NFL survivor pool picks and rookie quarterbacks are about as risky as they come. Of the three NFL rookie quarterbacks starting in Week 1, two are NFL underdogs by at least a field goal and may not be worth considering as you make your NFL knockout pool picks. However, Caleb Williams and the Bears are four-point favorites over the Titans in the Week 1 NFL odds, making them one of only six teams on the Week 1 NFL schedule favored by more than three.

Should you risk your NFL survivor pool picks on Williams and the Bears in Week 1 or is that a game to disregard? A successful NFL survivor pool strategy often requires players to zig when everybody else is zagging. Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine .

Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Miami Dolphins , even though they're coming off an 11-6 season and are favored over a Jaguars team that went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. This will be the 12th time that these two in-state AFC rivals will go head-to-head but the first time since 2021, when Trevor Lawrence won a 23-20 battle in London over Tua Tagovailoa when both were rookies. Lawrence threw for 319 yards and a touchdown in that victory and, while both rosters have changed dramatically since that meeting, he could be in for another big day on Sunday.

The 2023 season was a down year statistically for Lawrence in some regards, but he did average a career-high 7.1 yards per pass attempt and he was more efficient as a runner than ever, rushing for a career-high 339 yards and scoring four times while averaging a career-best 4.8 yards per carry. Miami was a middle-of-the-road (15th) passing defense last season but did give up the eighth-most passing touchdowns (27) in the NFL. That's a big reason the model is avoiding the Dolphins in NFL survivor pools for Week 1. See which team to pick instead here .

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is backing a surprising home team that wins outright in almost 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine .

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL and is up well over $7,000 since its inception .