Best NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, advice, strategy for 2024 Week 1: Forget this home favorite

The Cincinnati Bengals are the only team favored by at least one touchdown on the Week 1 NFL odds at -7.5 against New England for Sunday's game. There has been betting action on the Patriots though, dropping the line by a point over the past week. New England is debuting a new head coach (Jerod Mayo) and quarterback (Jacoby Brissett), so there is uncertainty surrounding the Patriots heading into the season. Uncertainty is not an ideal part of a Week 1 NFL survivor strategy, but Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks carry a certain level of risk.

Buffalo (-6.5 vs. Arizona) and Seattle (-6 vs. Denver) are the next-biggest favorites in the Week 1 NFL spreads. Should you back one of those teams with your Week 1 NFL knockout pool picks? Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine .

Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Miami Dolphins , even though they're coming off an 11-6 season and are favored over a Jaguars team that went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. This game has one of the highest totals of any game in Week 1, so the betting market is expecting a shootout at Hard Rock Stadium. Jacksonville is being overlooked heading into the season due to its poor finish to last season, but the Jaguars went 8-3 and held the No. 1 seed in the AFC through the first 11 games of the campaign.

They return quarterback Trevor Lawrence and wide receiver Christian Kirk, and they added another weapon in wide receiver Gabe Davis. Their defense should be better this season as well after hiring defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who helped Atlanta take a step forward last year. It is hard to know which version of the Jaguars will show up on Sunday, so the model recommends staying away from this game. See which team to pick instead here .

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is backing a surprising home team that wins outright in almost 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine .

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL and is up well over $7,000 since its inception .