Top NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, advice, strategy for 2024 Week 1: Forget this home favorite

The Buffalo Bills are among the heaviest favorites in the Week 1 NFL odds, listed at -6.5 against the Arizona Cardinals, one of the largest NFL spreads of the week. Bills quarterback Josh Allen lost 241 of his targets from last season following the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, while Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray now has an elite wide receiver in rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. Both teams will try to integrate new pieces into their offense in Week 1, which makes that a potentially risky game to target with Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks. However, the Bills are still the second-biggest favorites in the Week 1 NFL lines behind the Bengals (-7.5 vs. Patriots).

Cincinnati could be the most popular Week 1 NFL survivor pool pick in many NFL knockout pools, which means a New England upset could blow contests wide open. Should you follow the masses on the Bengals or go in a different direction with your Week 1 NFL eliminator pool picks? Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on .

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 181-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 35-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine .

Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions

In Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Miami Dolphins , even though they're coming off an 11-6 season and are favored over a Jaguars team that went 9-8 and missed the playoffs. The Dolphins lost some key pieces along their offensive line and their defense in the offseason. Pass rusher Bradley Chubb will not be available due to a knee injury, while linebacker Jaelan Phillips is on a snap count as he returns from an Achilles injury.

None of this is good news for Miami as it tries to slow down Jacksonville's offense, which is powered by quarterback Trevor Lawrence and his strong trio of wide receivers. Christian Kirk is back, while Gabe Davis was acquired in free agency and Brian Thomas Jr. was drafted in April. The model views this game as a shootout that could go either way, so the Dolphins are not a reliable survivor pick. See which team to pick instead here .

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks

Instead, the model is backing a surprising home team that wins outright in almost 80% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine .

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL and is up well over $7,000 since its inception .