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NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model loving Chargers, Bills in Week 1, 2024
By CBS Sports Staff,
3 hours ago
USATSI
The 2024 NFL season is finally upon us and the Week 1 NFL schedule is loaded with NFL matchups that oddsmakers predict will be hard-fought battles. Of the 16 Week 1 NFL games, only one features a spread higher than seven points, with the Bengals favored by nine over the Patriots according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds from SportsLine consensus. There are 12 games in the Week 1 NFL lines that feature NFL spreads lower than five points, which could make your Week 1 NFL picks a challenge. One of the closest NFL Vegas spreads of the week comes in an AFC South division rivalry, with the Texans favored by 1.5 against the Colts on the road. All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now .
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 185-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 39-21 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 1 NFL picks is that the Chargers (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Raiders . Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert has had tremendous success against the Raiders throughout his career. He's thrown 15 passing touchdowns against just two interceptions when playing the Raiders, while also rushing for three scores.
The Chargers also bolstered its defense this season by bringing in veteran Bud Dupree, who has 53 career sacks. He'll join a loaded defensive line that includes Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, two of the most disruptive defenders in the league. The Raiders have started slowly in years past, winning just one of their past six games played in December. SportsLine's model sees that trend continuing in Week 1 as the Chargers cover the spread nearly 60% of the time in Jim Harbaugh's debut as Los Angeles' head coach. See which other teams to pick here .
Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: the Bills (-5.5) cover at home versus the Cardinals . Arizona has struggled mightily on the road, winning just two of its last 12 games away from home. The Cardinals are also 1-4 in their past five games against the Bills on the road.
Buffalo, meanwhile, has had tremendous success against opponents from the NFC West, especially against the spread. The Bills have covered the spread in each of their past five games against a NFC West opponent. In addition, the Bills are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games played in September. SportsLine's model is predicting Bills quarterback Josh Allen to have a big day against the Cardinals, projecting he'll throw for 250 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 47 yards, That's a big reason why the Bills cover the spread in almost 70% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here .
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