Bob Asmussen | Survey says ... Illinois football is going to struggle in new-look Big Ten

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In the olden times — 2023 — the lowest a Big Ten team could be ranked going into the season was seventh in its division. It was one of the many charms of the two-division format. Like playing your neighbors every season and not having to travel two or three times zones for a game.

Welcome to 2024 and a super-sized conference. The addition of Oregon, UCLA, Southern California and Washington makes the Big Ten a national conference.

There isn’t a more marketable league in the country. Great venues. Huge, loyal fan bases. A tradition at every school.

But somebody has to finish last. And next to last. And 14th, 15th and 16th. Nobody ever brags about being No. 16, unless we are talking national rankings. Fans, players and coaches in the Big Ten need to get much thicker skins when it comes to their favorite teams. They are not going to like everything they read.

In two Big Ten polls I voted in this week, conducted by cleveland.com and Kings of the North, Illinois was picked No. 13 and 14, respectively.

Important to point out, the reporters filling out the surveys aren’t always right.

The top-four teams — Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State and Michigan — seem to be in the best position for success. In fact, I’m predicting all four make the College Football Playoff in the first year of the expanded 12-team field.

But the rest of the conference, from No. 5 to 18, is a guess. Throwing darts at a dart board ... from a mile away.

And things happen. Players rise to occasion. A deep backup gets a chance because of injury and becomes a star. It is college football. There are no guarantees. Play the 12 games in front of you and hope for the best.

History lesson

Think back to a year ago, when Illinois entered the season considered as a contender for the Big Ten West title. Or two seasons ago, when it was in position to win it.

Either situation could happen again.

I had Illinois at No. 13 in both surveys. That’s based as much as anything on the challenging schedule, which includes trips to Penn State, Nebraska and Rutgers and a visit from Michigan.

Of the 35 Illinois teams I have covered, the best ones were often surprises. None bigger than the 2007 team, which appeared headed to a bowl game early in the season, but exceeded expectations by making it to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. Best performance I have seen by an Illinois team came that season at Ohio State.

The 2001 team had everything in place for a nice season, but did more by winning the Big Ten outright thanks to an assist from Ohio State.

In its hands

My suspicion is that most Big Ten voters looked at Illinois’ four returning starters on defense and moved it down the list.

The voters didn’t have the benefit of meeting Terrance Brooks in person. The Texas transfer appears ready for a big season.

The voters also noted the departure of Johnny Newton to the NFL.

The offense, which is solid up front and deep in the backfield, figures to put up enough points. In his second season as starting quarterback, Luke Altmyer’s number should improve.

If the defense performs better than last season, a bump from five to seven or eight wins is possible.

Bret Bielema’s teams have shown the ability to keep games close. Often, it comes down to a play or two. The difference between No. 13 and No. 4 or 5 is small.

Plenty will be known in the first month, when Illinois plays Kansas, Nebraska and Penn State. Come out of that five-game stretch at 3-2 or better and a bowl becomes more likely.