The Carolina Panthers traded for Diontae Johnson and a 2024 7th-round pick, sending away a 2024 7th-round pick and CB Donte Jackson. Per Matt Harmon, the Panthers' wide receivers were the worst unit in the league at creating separation, especially on the outside. Johnson has been an elite separator in the NFL for years now. According to Harmon's Reception Perception, Johnson had a success rate in the 81st percentile or higher against man, zone, and press coverage.
He's been at the top in his success rate vs. zone coverage twice in the past and had his second-best finish vs. zone coverage last year (78.3%). This made him an obvious addition to the team at the cheap trade price they obtained him for and will go a long way for Bryce Young's development. In 2023, Young's leading receiver had 103 receptions. The next closest receiver was Jonathan Mingo, who had just 43 receptions. With the Panthers constantly trailing last year they were forced to throw the ball a lot and finished with the 8th highest passing play percentage (59.40%).
They also punted the ball 1.7 times for every 1 offensive score they had. That was the 3rd worst rate in the NFL last year. They clearly needed help in the passing game. Diontae Johnson will not be the only new face trying to help Bryce Young approve on his disappointing rookie season. Dave Canales will take over as Head Coach after revitalizing Baker Mayfield's career in 2023 and Geno Smith's career in 2022.
Canales and company decided to draft WR Xavier Legette with the 22nd overall pick this year and RB Jonathon Brooks with the 46th overall pick. Legette is an athletic freak but should operate primarily as an intermediate to downfield threat. Brooks is a well-rounded back who should help the Panthers take a step forward in their run game when he is fully healthy.
The offense will have better talent to work with and, under Canales's offensive scheme, should have more success than last year. Johnson's current ADP is 7.12 overall and WR40. Johnson should be a solid value at this ADP but lacks upside in half-PPR formats.
Our consensus projections for Johnson in the 2024 season would be: 83 receptions, 969 yards, 4 touchdowns through the air and 1 carry for 6 yards and 0 rushing touchdowns.
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